90 percent of GOP insiders predict a contested convention

By robbing Donald Trump of a victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday, Ted Cruz increased the odds of a contested Republican convention. If you ask GOP insiders, though, they'll tell you the contested convention is pretty much a done deal — 90 percent of the experts who spoke with Politico said neither Ted Cruz nor Donald Trump will lock the delegates needed to take the nomination.

Only a month ago, just half of the same insiders group said there would be a contested convention, but Cruz has since shown resilience in states like Wisconsin, North Dakota, Colorado, and Wyoming.

"There is no way any candidate heads to Cleveland with 1,237 [delegates], and there is no way someone other than Ted Cruz or Donald Trump walks out of Cleveland with the nomination. Any talk of that is just speculation to fill airtime or wishful thinking among many Republicans," a Colorado Republican, who spoke anonymously like the rest of respondents, told Politico.

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And that could mean serious trouble for Trump.

"Donald Trump has one chance to win the nomination, and that is on the first ballot. Right now, I put his chances at about 40 percent, and that will require him to get some number of delegates from the unpledged delegates in states like North Dakota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and a few territories," an Iowa Republican said.