Baseball sabermetrician-turned-polling savant Nate Silver was on Wednesday's live post-debate Late Show, and Stephen Colbert asked the question everyone wants to know: Who will win the election, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Clinton headed into the final debate with a 7-point lead, and all the scientific polls — and some of the unscientific ones — say she won the debate, Silver said, "so it's not looking too good for Donald J. Trump." Colbert made Silver admit that the one politician he has been really wrong about is Trump, and Silver said "we evolved" and foolishly didn't believe the polls back in the GOP primary.
Trump's "problem is now, he has only about 38 percent of the vote," Silver said. "Clinton has 45 percent of the vote, there are some undecideds left, I don't think he did a good job of persuading them tonight." Who are these undecided people, and how many are there? Colbert asked, "because I think at this point, those people don't need more information, they need more medication." "They are people who don't like either candidate," Silver said. "I mean, there's this guy named Evan McMullin in Utah, who is literally someone no one ever heard of, and he's now leading in some polls of Utah." "Evan McMullin?" Colbert said, writing down his name. "So there's a guy I've never heard of who might win the electoral college vote in Utah?"
Colbert brought up Trump's suggestion that he may not accept the result of the election on Nov. 8, and Silver spoke as if Trump has already lost. "People are so exhausted by this election," he said. "Look, even Al Gore, John Kerry, Mitt Romney, who all lost the election by relatively narrow margins, probably narrower than Trump did, they all stood down and people really didn't want to hear from them in anything but a gracious way. Trump has 35 percent of the country that will believe everything he says, but people do get sick and tired of hearing the same act again and again and again." Watch below. Peter Weber
The Week
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