cause and effect
The day after the House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act, The Cook Political Report dialed back the chances of Republicans winning 20 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections. Talking Points Memo reported that as of Friday morning, three districts previously rated as "leaning Republican" are now "toss-ups;" 11 districts that were "likely Republican" are now just "leaning Republican;" and six districts that were "solid Republican" are now only "leaning Republican."
The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman explained that though this is "the first of potentially many explosive votes, House Republicans' willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is consistent with past scenarios that have generated a midterm wave." "Not only did dozens of Republicans in marginal districts just hitch their names to an unpopular piece of legislation, Democrats just received another valuable candidate recruitment tool," Wasserman wrote, deeming the GOP health-care bill an "unequivocal political risk."
The bill narrowly passed the House, 217-213, and will now move to the Senate. See the full list of potentially affected House races at The Cook Political Report.