Medical journal estimates death toll in Hurricane Maria is 70 times higher than the official count


More than 4,500 people are believed to have been killed in Puerto Rico as a result of Hurricane Maria last year, more than 70 times the official death count, the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine reported Tuesday. That estimate would make the hurricane far deadlier than Hurricane Katrina in 2005, WSB-TV's Brett Rosner said, where 1,833 people died.
The first reports of a discrepancy in the Puerto Rico death toll came late last year, when The New York Times concluded that the true number of casualties could "exceed 1,000," far more than the official count of 64 dead. In The New England Journal of Medicine's survey, researchers contacted 3,299 random households and "from the survey data, we estimated a mortality rate of 14.3 deaths per 1,000 persons from Sept. 20 through Dec. 31, 2017." The researchers add that "this number is likely to be an underestimate because of survivor bias."
Deaths that count towards a total death toll include directly related events, like "flying debris," as well as deaths "caused by unsafe or unhealthy conditions resulting in injury, illness, or loss of necessary medical services." Puerto Rican deaths went underreported because hurricane-related casualties are required to be confirmed by the island's Institute of Forensic Sciences, and indirect deaths often aren't properly represented on official death certificates. Read more about the researchers' methodology at The New England Journal of Medicine.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.
-
The week's best photos
In Pictures A sea of kites, a game of sand hockey, and more
By Anahi Valenzuela, The Week US
-
G20: Viola Davis stars in 'ludicrous' but fun action thriller
The Week Recommends The award-winning actress plays the 'swashbuckling American president' in this newly released Prime Video film
By The Week UK
-
The Masters: Rory McIlroy finally banishes his demons
In the Spotlight McIlroy's grand slam triumph will go down as 'one of the greatest and most courageous victories in the history of golf'
By The Week UK
-
US proposes eroding species protections
Speed Read The Trump administration wants to change the definition of 'harm' in the Environmental Protection Act to allow habitat damage
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Severe storms kill dozens across central US
Speed Read At least 40 people were killed over the weekend by tornadoes, wildfires and dust storms
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Rain helps Los Angeles wildfires, risks mudslides
Speed Read The weather provided relief for crews working to contain wildfires, though rain over a burn area ups the chances of flooding and mudslides
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Death toll rises in LA fires as wind lull allows progress
Speed Read At least 24 people have died and 100,000 people are under mandatory evacuation orders
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Biden cancels Italy trip as raging LA fires spread
Speed Read The majority of the fires remain 0% contained
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Fast-spreading Los Angeles wildfires spark panic
Speed Read About 30,000 people were under an evacuation order as the inferno spread
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Hundreds feared dead in French Mayotte cyclone
Speed Read Cyclone Chido slammed into Mayotte, a French territory in the Indian Ocean
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Thirteen missing after Red Sea tourist boat sinks
Speed Read The vessel sank near the Egyptian coastal town of Marsa Alam
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK