Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez's re-election chances are looking worse than ever

Sen. Bob Menendez's (D-N.J.) worst nightmares are coming true in New Jersey's Senate race.

In such a reliably blue state, two-term incumbent Menendez was originally favored to win re-election over Republican challenger Bob Hugin this fall. But amid scandals and nasty political ads, the Cook Political Report has moved the race from "likely Democrat" to "toss-up," it announced Friday.

The shift comes as poll after poll has shown Menendez's lead slipping, with the latest Rutgers-Eagleton study putting him just five points ahead of Hugin. That's just outside the study's margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, and a huge shift from the 17-point lead Menendez had in March. Similarly risky Senate races for Democrats have so far come in states that voted for President Trump in 2016. But 55 percent of New Jersey went to Hillary Clinton, and the state hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1972.

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In this case, it seems Menendez's ethics scandals are the problem. Menendez has been accused of using his Senate seat to benefit a wealthy friend in exchange for campaign donations and private jet rides, and was indicted in 2015 on federal corruption charges. Those charges were eventually dismissed, but an anonymous tipster accused Menendez of soliciting underage prostitutes as part of his corrupt spending. That uncorroborated account is now the subject of a harsh and misleading ad from Hugin, who's wildly outspent Menendez on TV ads, says the Cook Political Report. Couple that with the fact that 54 percent of New Jersey voters say Menendez's trial factors into their vote, per the Rutgers-Eagleton poll, and Menendez seems to have two very rough weeks ahead.