Clinton Treasury Secretary ups chances of recession before 2020


The markets aren't looking good, but former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers says not to panic ... yet.
Amid a month of falling stocks, Summers cautioned that "weak markets" don't necessarily mean "economic disaster is around the corner." Still, he's increasing his prediction of a recession from "a bit less than 50 percent" to 60 percent, he tweeted Wednesday.
Summers served as former President Bill Clinton's Treasury Secretary and directed the National Economic Council under former President Barack Obama. In tweets Wednesday, he cited the assertion of Robert Rubin, his predecessor at the Treasury Department, that "markets go up, markets go down" to describe slumping stocks. President Trump shouldn't have claimed credit for August's roaring markets, Summers said. But seeing as "one can see essentially no trace of even the 1987 crash in economic data," Summers said we should remember "markets are noisy, flawed predictors of the economy."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Still, Summers went on to say that before December's tanking market he predicted a "bit less than 50 percent" chance of a recession starting next year. He's now increased those odds to 60 percent.
Stock markets are still on track for their worst December performance since the Great Depression, especially after an unprecedented Christmas Eve drop.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Kathryn is a graduate of Syracuse University, with degrees in magazine journalism and information technology, along with hours to earn another degree after working at SU's independent paper The Daily Orange. She's currently recovering from a horse addiction while living in New York City, and likes to share her extremely dry sense of humor on Twitter.
-
5 editorial cartoons about ICE raids
Cartoons Political cartoonists take on ICE raids, harvesting Big Macs for Donald Trump, and what to do when Stephen Miller shows up at the front door
-
Grilled radicchio with caper and anchovy sauce recipe
The Week Recommends Smoky twist on classic Italian flavours is perfect to grill, drizzle and devour
-
What we know about Iran's nuclear programme
In the Spotlight The global nuclear watchdog has declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years
-
Economists fear US inflation data less reliable
speed read The Labor Department is collecting less data for its consumer price index due to staffing shortages
-
Crypto firm Coinbase hacked, faces SEC scrutiny
Speed Read The Securities and Exchange Commission has also been investigating whether Coinbase misstated its user numbers in past disclosures
-
Starbucks baristas strike over dress code
speed read The new uniform 'puts the burden on baristas' to buy new clothes, said a Starbucks Workers United union delegate
-
Warren Buffet announces surprise retirement
speed read At the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, the billionaire investor named Vice Chairman Greg Abel his replacement
-
Trump calls Amazon's Bezos over tariff display
Speed Read The president was not happy with reports that Amazon would list the added cost from tariffs alongside product prices
-
Markets notch worst quarter in years as new tariffs loom
Speed Read The S&P 500 is on track for its worst month since 2022 as investors brace for Trump's tariffs
-
Tesla Cybertrucks recalled over dislodging panels
Speed Read Almost every Cybertruck in the US has been recalled over a stainless steel panel that could fall off
-
Crafting emporium Joann is going out of business
Speed Read The 82-year-old fabric and crafts store will be closing all 800 of its stores