President Trump's next round of tariffs on Chinese imports will raise the average trade war cost for U.S. households to $1,000 per year, from $600, because the new duties will largely hit finished consumer goods, JP Morgan Chase researchers said Monday. The tariffs would largely negate any extra money consumers got from Trump's $1.5 trillion tax cut, and unlike with tax-subsidized farmers, "there is no simple way to compensate consumer," Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, JP Morgan's head of U.S. equity strategy, wrote to investors.
Consumer spending is the brightest spot in the U.S. economy right now, and facing slowdowns in manufacturing and business spending, and other warnings signs of a possible recession, the White House is now exploring a payroll tax cut to encourage Americans to keep their wallets open, The Washington Post and The New York Times report, citing several people familiar with the discussions. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow is also reportedly advocating a capital gains tax cut, which would mostly benefit wealthy investors but, unlike the payroll cut, wouldn't require approval by Congress.
Payroll tax cuts, typically popular among Democrats because they benefit middle class workers, either drain money from Social Security and Medicare accounts or add to the ballooning deficit, already up 27 percent from last year. The White House said Monday that "cutting payroll taxes is not something under consideration at this time," despite Monday's White House discussions and an internal white paper exploring the idea.
Publicly, Trump administration officials have been dismissing the idea of a recession, but "Trump has sent mixed messages," the Post notes. He tweeted that the economy is "very strong," then specifically urged the Federal Reserve to cut already-low interest rates by 100 basis points and pump more money into the economy through "quantitative easing." Cutting benchmark interest rates to 1.25 percent would give the Fed "little additional wiggle room to maneuver if a full-fledged recession began," the Post reports, and quantitative easing is "an extreme step that central bankers take when they are trying to urgently address a slumping economy." Peter Weber
President Trump suffered another setback in the South on Saturday.
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) defeated his Republican challenger Eddie Rispone, a wealthy businessman who had Trump's backing, to secure another term in Baton Rouge. After polls predicted a close race, Edwards edged Rispone by about 40,000 votes, carrying most of the state's urban centers. Rural areas mostly supported Rispone.
Edwards' victory is widely viewed as a loss for Trump and the GOP, especially after Democratic challenger Andy Beshear won a tightly contested race against incumbent Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R). Trump had campaigned heartily for both candidates. "If this campaign has taught us anything, it's that the partisan forces in Washington, D.C., are not enough to break through the bonds that we share as Louisianans," Edwards said during his victory speech.
The president decried Edwards as a "radical leftist" in the lead up to the election. The governor is known for expanding Medicaid and criminal justice reform, but he has also received criticism from his own party for supporting antiabortion measures. Read more at The Washington Post and NPR. Tim O'Donnell
A new major federally funded study released Saturday at The American Heart Association's annual scientific conference found that stents and coronary bypass surgery are no more effective than drug treatment and better health habits in preventing heart attacks.
The study's results primarily pertain to people who have narrowed coronary arteries, but are not actually suffering acute symptoms. Typically in those cases, doctors will implement a stent or perform bypass surgery to redirect blood around a blockage even when patients don't show any symptoms or feel any discomfort when they exert themselves, The Wall Street Journal reports. But, per the new study, these interventions aren't actually more successful than cholesterol-lowering drugs and other changes in health habits.
"You won't prolong life," Judith Hochman, the chair of the study, said.
Stents and surgery do, however, work better for relieving symptoms related to frequent chest pain, the study found.
The results of the study, while likely to increase debate between preventative and interventional cardiologists, do provide further evidence that caution is a-okay in many circumstances. "This shows the safety of not panicking when you see a positive stress test," said Jay Giri, a practicing interventional cardiologist. Read more at The Associated Press and The Wall Street Journal. Tim O'Donnell
An anonymous member of the Chinese political establishment leaked over 400 pages of internal documents to The New York Times, which provide an "unprecedented inside view" into Beijing's crackdown on China's Muslim population.
The Times notes that the most detailed discussions on the "indoctrination camps" in Xianjing, where as many as one million members of ethnic groups that practice Islam are being held, are found in a directive that outlines how party officials should handle minority students returning home in the summer of 2017 to find that their family members had been sent to Xianjing. Officials were advised to tell the students their relatives were "in treatment" after exposure to radical Islam, and respond with increasingly firm replies when pressed on their matter, highlighting the narrative the government had carved out to justify the internment.
"If they don't undergo study and training, they'll never thoroughly and fully understand the dangers of religious extremism," one of the answers said. "No matter what age, anyone who has been infected by religious extremism must undergo study."
A series of internal speeches by Chinese President Xi Jinping also stood out in the document. Xi said officials should show "absolutely no mercy" and use the "organs of dictatorship" to root out Islamic extremism in the country. He was careful, however, to say there should be no discrimination against certain ethnic groups like the Uighurs, and that Islam should not be restricted as a religion. Many people argue that both of these things have come to fruition regardless. Read more at The New York Times. Tim O'Donnell
Things haven't been going smoothly for Sen. Kamala Harris' (D-Calif.) presidential campaign lately, but the Democratic hopeful is expected to receive a boost Saturday with an endorsement from the United Farm Workers, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
It's considered a major endorsement from a powerful California-based union established by Cesar Chavez, Dolores Huerta (who personally endorsed Harris this year), and Gilbert Padilla. Home state ties were likely a factor for Harris in this instance, but a win is a win.
The union's executive board reportedly voted "overwhelmingly" to back the senator. UFW President Teresa Romero cited Harris' efforts to help farm workers secure overtime pay, as well as her time spent marching with the group during demonstrations, and advocating for immigrant rights as major reasons why they're throwing their weight behind her.
It's unclear if this will boost Harris' numbers even in California where she's lagging behind Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Vice President Joe Biden. Things look even worse nationally for her, as South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has vaulted into fourth place. Besides faltering in the polls, the campaign is also dealing with some internal strife. Perhaps the most recent endorsement will brighten the mood. Read more at The San Francisco Chronicle. Tim O'Donnell
You've probably seen the Myles Garrett helmet swing by now.
The Cleveland Browns defensive end was suspended indefinitely by the NFL after he ripped off the helmet of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph and then proceeded to hit Rudolph over the head with it at the end of the teams' contest Thursday night. Garrett was ejected from the game, and the league came down with the hammer Friday. Fans won't see Garrett until next season, at the earliest.
Football is a violent sport, but Garrett's misconduct was shocking. It was also surprising because of the culprit himself. Garrett, a former No. 1 overall draft pick and Defensive Player of the Year candidate, writes poetry, likes dinosaurs, and is considered an all around nice guy. Of course, that doesn't mean he's beyond losing his composure like he did Thursday. But his over-the-top reaction may have also been a result of his determination to shed his reputation and establish himself as someone not to be trifled with.
Garrett's former defensive line coach for the Browns, Clyde Simmons, told The Ringer in 2018 that Garrett was learning how to be more intimidating on the field:
"There's an unspoken code in football in what you will allow someone to do to you. If somebody's out there cheapshotting and playing dirty, you are the only person that's going to stop that ... At some point you have to stand up and say, 'I'm not taking that crap. I'll be here all day.'" Simmons told me then that most of the time, a few choice words will establish this. "If not there are other things you can do, but I won't be getting into that." [The Ringer]
That isn't to say Garrett's actions were okayed by the Browns or he long ago determined he would attack someone with their own helmet, but it does show he was encouraged to intensify his demeanor. Read more at The Ringer. Tim O'Donnell
It's helpful to be able to read your boss if you want something done at work.
Current and former Trump administration officials told The Wall Street Journal that President Trump was pretty adamant that he did not want to provide Ukraine with the U.S.-made Javelin antitank missiles Kyiv requested in 2017 in the hopes of defending itself against Russia. Trump's hostility reportedly stemmed from the fact that he long considered Ukraine a "corrupt country" and that he wanted European countries to do more to protect their neighbors, rather than have countries like Ukraine lean so heavily on the U.S.
But then-National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster and then-Defense Secretary James Mattis told Kyiv not to worry. They promised that Washington would grant the request for the missiles once Trump was in a better mood, one foreign official briefed on the matter told the Journal. Lo and behold, the Trump administration passed its tax-reform bill in December 2017, which energized the president. The next day, Trump signed off on the missile deal, though the Journal notes that his largely negative view of Ukraine remained in tact. Read more about how Trump's opinion of Ukraine was shaped over time at The Wall Street Journal. Tim O'Donnell