Contested convention now most likely Democratic primary outcome, FiveThirtyEight predicts
![Democratic candidates.](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/jCXosYvUYAF5g2fowNWNvT-415-80.jpg)
And the winner is... no one.
That's what FiveThirtyEight sees as the most likely outcome of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, according to Thursday's update of its primary forecast. While Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) stays relatively flat with a one in three chance of securing the nomination, the possibility of a contested convention has a 42 percent chance of happening, FiveThirtyEight predicts.
Sanders peaked in his nomination chances at close to 50 percent after winning both the New Hampshire primaries and Iowa caucuses. Those two contests also sent former Vice President Joe Biden from a close to one in two chance of winning down to just about one in nine. But polls in the days since have dropped Sanders back down to a 35 percent chance, seeing as he's earned only a slight advantage over a split field of more moderate candidates. In turn, those polls and split contests fueled a dramatic upswing in the chances for no candidate at all.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
![https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516-320-80.jpg)
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg maintains a one in 10 chance of winning the primary, per FiveThirtyEight. But that doesn't take into account Wednesday night's debate, where Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) delivered a scorching rebuke of everything Bloomberg stands for.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Kathryn is a graduate of Syracuse University, with degrees in magazine journalism and information technology, along with hours to earn another degree after working at SU's independent paper The Daily Orange. She's currently recovering from a horse addiction while living in New York City, and likes to share her extremely dry sense of humor on Twitter.
-
Today's political cartoons - July 24, 2024
Cartoons Wednesday's cartoons - refunds, big funds, and more
By The Week US Published
-
The manosphere: the shady online network of masculinists
The Explainer A new police report said a rise in radicalised young men is contributing to an increase in violence against women and girls
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
How can we fix tourism?
Today's Big Question Local protests over negative impact of ever-rising visitor numbers could change how we travel forever
By The Week UK Published
-
Can Kamala Harris beat Trump?
Today's Big Question Some senior Democrats are unsure the vice-president can win in November even as party closes ranks behind her
By The Week UK Published
-
Menendez convicted of bribery, fraud, and extortion
Speed Read The New Jersey Democratic Senator was found guilty in a federal corruption trial
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Florida judge dismisses Trump documents case
Speed Read Judge Aileen Cannon ruled that special counsel Jack Smith was improperly appointed
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Hamas says military chief survived Israeli strike
Speed Read An Israeli bombing failed to hit its intended target, military commander Mohammed Deif, but killed at least 90 Palestinians
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
First Israeli report on Oct. 7 finds 'severe mistakes and errors' in IDF response
Speed Reads Israeli military admits failures in response to deadly Hamas attack that triggered Gaza war
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
What happens if Joe Biden steps down?
Today's Big Question If the president decides not to run against Donald Trump, here's what Democrats have to do next
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published