Contested convention now most likely Democratic primary outcome, FiveThirtyEight predicts
And the winner is... no one.
That's what FiveThirtyEight sees as the most likely outcome of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, according to Thursday's update of its primary forecast. While Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) stays relatively flat with a one in three chance of securing the nomination, the possibility of a contested convention has a 42 percent chance of happening, FiveThirtyEight predicts.
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Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg maintains a one in 10 chance of winning the primary, per FiveThirtyEight. But that doesn't take into account Wednesday night's debate, where Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) delivered a scorching rebuke of everything Bloomberg stands for.
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