Contested convention now most likely Democratic primary outcome, FiveThirtyEight predicts

(Image credit: MARK RALSTON/AFP via Getty Images)

published 20 February 2020

And the winner is... no one.

That's what FiveThirtyEight sees as the most likely outcome of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, according to Thursday's update of its primary forecast. While Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) stays relatively flat with a one in three chance of securing the nomination, the possibility of a contested convention has a 42 percent chance of happening, FiveThirtyEight predicts.

Sanders peaked in his nomination chances at close to 50 percent after winning both the New Hampshire primaries and Iowa caucuses. Those two contests also sent former Vice President Joe Biden from a close to one in two chance of winning down to just about one in nine. But polls in the days since have dropped Sanders back down to a 35 percent chance, seeing as he's earned only a slight advantage over a split field of more moderate candidates. In turn, those polls and split contests fueled a dramatic upswing in the chances for no candidate at all.

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Kathryn is a graduate of Syracuse University, with degrees in magazine journalism and information technology, along with hours to earn another degree after working at SU's independent paper The Daily Orange. She's currently recovering from a horse addiction while living in New York City, and likes to share her extremely dry sense of humor on Twitter.

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