The longest hiring streak in U.S. history is expected to end, but the real carnage comes next month

last updated 3 April 2020

The Labor Department's March jobs report released Friday is expected to officially end America's record 113 straight months of positive employment numbers. Economists polled by FactSet forecast a loss of 150,000 jobs and a slight jump in the unemployment rate to 3.9 percent, from 3.5 percent. But even if the survey shows jobs were added in March, as some economists predict, the reality, as reflected in the 10 million Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks, is much worse than whatever the Labor Department reports.

Unlike the weekly unemployment-claims reports, the Labor Department's more comprehensive survey of the labor market was conducted the week of March 8-14, right before many businesses shut down as the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic started hitting the U.S. in force, The Wall Street Journal reports. "The April jobs report, to be released May 8, would capture the giant spike in unemployment. Some economists project that report could show the economy shed 20 million jobs and the unemployment rate could rise to a record-high level."

If the unemployment rate hits 15 percent in May's report, as some economist forecast, that would wipe out "the bulk of the past decade's gains," The Associated Press reports. Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, told CNBC on Thursday he expects the unemployment rate to hit the mid-teens in the near-term and fall to about 8 percent by the end of 2020. But "no forecasting models are built to deal with the unique situation we have," Brad Hershbein, an economist at the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, tells the Journal. "There's tremendous uncertainty."

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Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.