Researcher says if U.S. reopens May 1, there would 'very clearly' be a coronavirus rebound


The White House is paying close attention to several models that use data to project the number of coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths that may take place in the United States, including one by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. On Sunday, the institute's director, Dr. Christopher Murray, appeared on Face the Nation to discuss a rolling reopening of the economy and how incomplete closures in some states will affect others with stricter social distancing guidelines.
Murray told host Margaret Brennan that the "issue is if you open up too soon and there is a big load of cases still in the community that have the potential to go back to community transmission, we can quickly see resurgences in some states. So some states it's possible in May, but in other states, it's going to be very, you know, very unlikely that that would not lead to an immediate resurgence."
States on the West Coast seem to be "farther along the epidemic, peaking, and then we need multiple weeks of closures after that peak to bring the burden of cases down to the points where testing and contract tracing has a chance of working," Murray said.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Since there wasn't a uniform implementation of social distancing closures across all states, a major question is how to control importation from outside regions. "We have rock solid evidence that the full closures work," Murray said. "We've seen that in Italy and Spain. We're seeing that out here out west. But what we don't know is do these sort of incomplete closures have the same impact."
In its initial testing, Murray's institute found that "if you opened up the entire country May 1, then we would very clearly have a rebound," he said. "We don't think the capability in the states exists yet to deal with that volume of cases. And so by July or August, we could be back in the same situation we are now."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Catherine Garcia has worked as a senior writer at The Week since 2014. Her writing and reporting have appeared in Entertainment Weekly, The New York Times, Wirecutter, NBC News and "The Book of Jezebel," among others. She's a graduate of the University of Redlands and the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism.
-
Today's political cartoons - March 29, 2025
Cartoons Saturday's cartoons - my way or Norway, running orders, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 tactically sound cartoons about the leaked Signal chat
Cartoons Artists take on the clown signal, baby steps, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Roast lamb shoulder with ginger and fresh turmeric recipe
The Week Recommends Succulent and tender and falls off the bone with ease
By The Week UK Published
-
Measles outbreak spreads, as does RFK Jr.'s influence
Speed Read The outbreak centered in Texas has grown to at least three states and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is promoting unproven treatments
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
RFK Jr. offers alternative remedies as measles spreads
Speed Read Health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes unsupported claims about containing the spread as vaccine skepticism grows
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Texas outbreak brings 1st US measles death since 2015
Speed read The outbreak is concentrated in a 'close-knit, undervaccinated' Mennonite community in rural Gaines County
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Mystery illness spreading in Congo rapidly kills dozens
Speed Read The World Health Organization said 53 people have died in an outbreak that originated in a village where three children ate a bat carcass
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Ozempic can curb alcohol cravings, study finds
Speed read Weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may also be helpful in limiting alcohol consumption
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
New form of H5N1 bird flu found in US dairy cows
Speed Read This new form of bird flu is different from the version that spread through herds in the last year
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Microplastics accumulating in human brains, study finds
Speed Read The amount of tiny plastic particles found in human brains increased dramatically from 2016 to 2024
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
FDA approves painkiller said to thwart addiction
Speed Read Suzetrigine, being sold as Journavx, is the first new pharmaceutical pain treatment approved by the FDA in 20 years
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published