A poll of Wisconsin voters from Marquette University Law School released Tuesday shows former Vice President Joe Biden beating President Trump in the crucial swing state by 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent, within the margin of error. But mind the age gap: Trump leads Biden among voters 30-59, "a pattern that has held in most of the Marquette Law School polls since August," Marquette notes, but Biden's lead among voters 60 and older — 18 points — is larger than his 10-point advantage in voters 18 to 29.
Biden also led Trump by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, in the last Marquette poll in March, and polls since August have shown a close race, with Trump leading in November and the two candidates tied in February. Marquette's new poll was conducted via phone May 3-7 among 811 Wisconsin registered voters. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points.
Nationally, Trump won voters 65 and up by 7 points, and he led Democrat Hillary Clinton by 5 points at this point in 2016, The New York Times notes. Some public polls and internal campaign polling now show Biden winning by at least 10 points nationally, the Times reports, and some Trump campaign officials attribute the dangerous softening of support among older voters to Trump's coronavirus briefings, arguing that "older voters will return now that Mr. Trump has phased out his self-congratulatory version of a fireside chat."
Vox's Sean Collins writes that publicly available national polling still has Trump leading among seniors but consistently losing to Biden among the general electorate, and "much of what is driving Biden's advantage appears to be support among Generation Z and millennial voters." But even if Biden just peels off some of Trump's support among senior citizens, one of the president's most important constituencies, that could tip what is expected to be a close election, the Times notes, in Wisconsin and other swing states.