Is the CDC exaggerating the risk of outdoor COVID-19 transmission?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's official stance is that "less than 10 percent" of COVID-19 transmission has occurred outdoors, but The New York Times' David Leonhardt wrote Tuesday that that's like saying "sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year." Sharks actually only attack around 150 people a year, so the 20,000 number is "both true and deceiving," which appears to be the case with the CDC's outdoor transmission assessment.
In reality, multiple epidemiologists told Leonhardt the actual figure is probably less than 1 percent, and may even be below 0.1 percent. The 10 percent benchmark "seems to be a huge exaggeration," said Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrew's.
The CDC reportedly reached that number based on research that defined any place that was a mix of indoors and outdoors as the latter. For instance, the bulk of cases tied to outdoor transmission in multiple studies occurred at construction sites in Singapore, which the Times reports were not solely outdoor settings, leaving open the possibility that transmission really occurred indoors. But even if all of the Singapore cases did occur outside, they still only made up less than 1 percent of total cases.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Increasing the risk by tenfold or more is an issue, Leonardt argues, not because it's bad math, but because it's "an example of how the agency is struggling to communicate effectively, and leaving many people confused about what's truly risky." Read more at The New York Times.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
US bans final type of asbestos
Speed Read Exposure to asbestos causes about 40,000 deaths in the U.S. each year
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Seattle Children's Hospital sues Texas over 'sham' demand for transgender medical records
Speed Read Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton subpoenaed records of any Texan who received gender-affirming care at the Washington hospital
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Afghanistan has a growing female suicide problem
Speed Read The Taliban has steadily whittled away women's and girls' rights in Afghanistan over the past 2 years, prompting a surge in depression and suicide
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US life expectancy rose in 2022 but not to pre-pandemic levels
Speed Read Life expectancy is slowly crawling back up
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Vallance diaries: Boris Johnson 'bamboozled' by Covid science
Speed Read Then PM struggled to get his head around key terms and stats, chief scientific advisor claims
By The Week UK Published
-
An increasing number of dog owners are 'vaccine hesitant' about rabies
Speed Read A new survey points to canine vaccine hesitancy
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Anger may be a powerful motivator for tough goals, new study suggests
Speed Read Keeping your cool might actually be less efficient than letting your anger drive you
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
A tropical skin disease is making the rounds in the US
Speed Read Leishmaniasis is endemic to the country and can cause ulcers and disfiguration
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published