Putting your money where your mouth is has never been easier, as it’s now possible to gamble on basically anything, including election outcomes. However, many experts worry that gamifying politics could compromise its integrity and manipulate how issues and candidates are represented in the media.
What are prediction markets? They are like the stock market, but “instead of buying shares in companies, you buy shares in the outcomes of real-world events,” said Vox. Top prediction market apps like Kalshi and Polymarket “allow you to stake money on everything from the outcomes of elections and wars to the weather in your city tomorrow to who will win the Grammy for Album of the Year.” The apps essentially “transform any future scenario, regardless of how glib or disturbing, into a profitable wager,” said NPR.
Under the Biden administration, there was an “aggressive clampdown” on prediction markets, said NPR. However, they are once again “taking flight with the full blessing of the White House.” The industry skyrocketed in 2025 and brought in $10 billion combined in bets on Kalshi and Polymarket in November.
How will they affect politics? President Donald Trump dropped the Biden administration campaign to outlaw betting on elections, and Kalshi and Polymarket added Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser. In 2024, a win in court allowed Kalshi to “offer event contracts that allowed its users to wager money on the U.S. election,” said MarketWatch.
“We should probably prepare for a world where — much in the way that sports have become nearly impossible to follow or talk about without talking in this meta way about odds, betting outcomes, etc. — politics will start to feel like that,” said John Herrman, a tech columnist at New York Magazine, to Vox. Also, just as you can no longer watch sports without ads from various sportsbooks, CNN and CNBC have “announced partnerships with Kalshi that will incorporate the app's voting markets on things like elections into the networks’ news coverage,” said NPR.
“Entanglements with prediction markets might create other problems for journalists,” said The New Yorker. “Considering how significantly news coverage shapes betting odds, there’s ample opportunity for insider trading.” Bets placed on certain candidates or issues might bring more interest or popularity and thus skew coverage or voter behavior. |