A sustained Ukrainian drone and missile blitz on Russian-occupied Crimea has forced the Kremlin to declare a state of emergency on the peninsula. The offensive has “upended life in Crimea,” said The Wall Street Journal, and “undercut its image as a showcase of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imperial ambitions” in Ukraine.
Although Putin has “poured money into the peninsula,” locals say “basic services” like kindergartens, rubbish collection and ATMs have now “stopped functioning,” said the Journal. And he has taken the rare step of acknowledging fuel shortages, admitting there’s only a “few days’ supply” left in Crimea, though he’s “confident” more fuel would be brought in soon.
What did the commentators say?
Ukraine’s offensive coincides with the approach of September’s Russian parliamentary elections, forcing the Kremlin to “maintain a strict sense of composure,” said the Journal. Putin will want to prevent political tensions from rising over the situation in Crimea, framing the Ukrainian strikes as an effort to break Russia’s morale.
There’s a “new confidence in Kyiv, just as many in Russia are growing pessimistic,” said Mark Galeotti at The Times. But the outcome of Ukraine’s latest campaign successes may be “rather less predictable and controllable” than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “seems to think.”
Some “pragmatists” in Moscow believe the war has “reached a point of diminishing returns” for the Kremlin, which should now freeze the conflict along current lines and “declare victory,” said Galeotti. But there’s also a “maximalist camp” calling for “escalation” — the “mobilization of hundreds of thousands of reservists,” the “deployment of conscripts,” and “more aggressive covert operations” against the factories in Europe that are supplying Kyiv with weapons.
It “may be a mistake” to conclude that what’s happening in Crimea will “force the Kremlin to yield,” said Matthew Chance at CNN. Putin has built an “image as an uncompromising leader,” which makes “capitulation, retreat or even compromise in Ukraine incredibly unlikely and difficult for him to pull off.”
What next?
In the worst-case scenario, a pressured Putin, “egged on” by hardliners, “does something particularly stupid, such as escalating attacks on Kyiv or even using tactical nuclear weapons,” said The Telegraph. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already alluded to the possibility of unspecified “systematic strikes.” When NATO leaders meet in Ankara on Tuesday, they “need to be ready for a potential showdown” with Moscow. |
