Can Kamala Harris beat Trump?

Donald Trump's claim that Kamala Harris would be easier to beat than Joe Biden is likely to be put to the test after the president dramatically withdrew from the 2024 US presidential race just over 100 days before polling day.

After releasing a statement on Sunday announcing he was stepping aside, Biden was quick to endorse his vice-president. That was soon followed by backing from the powerful Congressional Black Caucus, high-profile lawmakers and several key donors and Super PACs (political action committees). One of these, ActBlue, raised a staggering $46.7 million (£36.1 million) in just over seven hours after Biden's bombshell announcement, making it "the biggest fundraising day of the 2024 cycle".

Following a week in which Trump survived an assassination attempt, Biden's decision to back Harris has thrown the race for the White House wide open yet again. "To put it mildly," said Politico, "it's hard to know what might actually happen in this chaotic, historic presidential election year."

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What did the commentators say?

Following Biden's "stunning" decision not to seek re-election, Kamala Harris has emerged as a "surprisingly strong potential challenger" to Donald Trump in November, said The Independent.

As VP she has been dogged by stubbornly poor approval ratings, not helped by being handed a portfolio of politically tricky issues such as stemming illegal migration across the US's southern border. But she has also spent the last three years "building a profile on the world stage", and has become the face of the administration's battle to protect abortion rights. 

Practically, she also has a "built-in advantage" in taking on Trump, as she would be the only person able to tap into the massive war chest already raised for her and Biden's re-election bid. She can also take advantage of the nationwide apparatus the Biden-Harris campaign has already built up, and will be able to point to her personal involvement in the administration's successes.

It won't be smooth sailing, however. Detractors have accused her of "taking a mixed-bag approach in her policies". She "has also faced criticism that she has not lived up to expectations" and that she "lacks the charisma to rally the party". "Real or manufactured, critics believe Harris is viewed as inept and unpopular by voters," said The Telegraph. 

As a former California attorney general, Harris has described herself as a "progressive prosecutor", said Al Jazeera. "But she has made few inroads with the progressive wing of the party."

Harris's supporters, meanwhile, have "substantive responses to all the criticisms laid at her door". First and foremost, they argue that as the first female vice-president, as well as the first Black and Asian American in the role, the "lens through which her record has been judged is tainted with racism, sexism and rank hypocrisy", said The Telegraph.

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll this month found that 70% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would be "satisfied" if Harris became the Democratic nominee. But polls have consistently showed Trump beating Harris by a similar margin to Biden nationally, something that has given some senior Democrats pause for thought.

Crucially, though, a survey by CNN and SSRS found that Harris currently outperforms Biden among two key voting blocs – women and independent voters. Both will be vital to determining who takes the White House in November.

Despite taking a dismissive public stance on the prospect of Harris's candidacy, internally the Trump campaign has for weeks "been more concerned about running against Harris than Biden", said The Guardian.

What next?

After weeks of in-fighting among Democrats over whether Biden should stay in the race, Reuters said a "rush of support coalescing behind Harris" is "crucial with just over 100 days before the November election".

While some in the party who still harbour doubts about the 59-year-old Harris have suggested a mini-primary should be held before the August convention, this appears increasingly unlikely following Biden's endorsement. Even before the president threw his weight behind her, Harris was "widely viewed as the favourite to replace him on the ticket", with her "foreign policy experience and national name recognition" giving her a head start over potential challengers, said The Associated Press.

The Democratic National Convention's rules committee is to meet on Wednesday to finalise the framework by which the party's presidential nominee will be chosen. Responding to Republican accusations of an anti-democratic establishment stitch-up, co-chairs Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor, and the long-time Democratic operative Leah Daughtry have promised the process will be "open, transparent, fair and orderly".

If Harris does emerge as the party's nominee, most commentators predict she will pick a running mate from among a small group of Democratic governors from one of the key battleground states, with the name of Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro being repeatedly raised, said The Jewish Chronicle.

The sudden change to the ticket means the focus of the Democratic Convention, which is scheduled to begin in Chicago on 19 August, will have to "shift dramatically" to put the spotlight firmly on Harris, introduce her vice-presidential pick to the nation, and present "their vision and how it differs from that of the Republican as revealed during last week’s GOP convention", said David Rothkopf in the Daily Beast.

The "contrasts between the two campaigns should be dramatically heightened" should Harris top the ticket, with the Democrats able to play up her law and order record, her inspirational backstory and relative youthfulness compared to Trump.

"Harris is a new face; to some extent, she might help satisfy the electorate's desire for change, simply by being someone other" than Trump or Biden, said The New York Times. But she will still "need to offer an optimistic and hopeful vision for the future, backed by a plausible agenda".

If she can achieve this a "major win for the Democrats in November is now possible", said Rothkopf. "If the party and Americans at large respond as they should to Sunday's stunning news, then, the party should emerge newly energised and the prospects that Vice President Kamala Harris is sworn in next January as President Kamala Harris will be excellent."