Robotyne: does liberated village signal success of Ukraine counter-offensive?

As Ukraine’s army liberated the occupied village of Robotyne, Russia was forced to deploy some of its most elite paratroopers to the front lines in a bid to halt a breakthrough as the grinding Ukrainian counter-offensive continued to gather pace.

The reinforcements came from the country’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division, which is “arguably Russia’s best division and is relatively fresh”, tweeted Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.

The move “speaks to the growing momentum of the Ukrainians’ 2023 counter-offensive”, said Forbes.

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In the past couple of weeks, Ukraine has liberated Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia and repelled Russian troops from the rural settlement of Urozhaine, which lies 60 miles east of Robotyne in the Mokri Yaly River Valley.

These “twin victories” have brought Kyiv’s forces a few miles closer to their “two main objectives in southern Ukraine”, Forbes said, which are to “free the cities of Melitopol and Mariupol from their Russian occupiers”.

What did the papers say?

Ukraine’s capture of Robotyne last Tuesday was “one of the first significant gains since its southern counter-offensive began two months ago”, said The Telegraph.

The village is important because it brings Ukraine “within striking distance” of Russia’s so-called “Surovikin line”, which is the main line of defence protecting Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. If Ukraine’s generals manage to reach Melitopol, as they plan, they will effectively have managed to cut that land bridge.

But despite Kyiv’s celebrations, “progress remains slow”, the Telegraph added. The fall of Robotyne still represents “an advance of only around six miles since June”.

While it is true that Ukraine’s counter-offensive has progressed slower than hoped, this is largely because of Russia’s extensive use of landmines around the country, said Ukrainian journalist Svitlana Morenets in The Spectator.

Russian forces “have built some of the most extensive battlefield fortifications seen in Europe since the Second World War”, Morenets wrote, which includes planting approximately 1,500 mines per square kilometre in the south of Ukraine, rendering Ukraine “the most heavily mined country in the world”.

What next?

Slow progress in the counter-offensive has “created tensions” between Ukraine and its Western allies, said the Financial Times.

US officials have “painted a gloomy picture of the counter-offensive”, the newspaper added, and “expressed pessimism that Kyiv will be able to recapture significant territory before wet autumn weather hinders the ability of its forces to manoeuvre, or they run out of combat power”.

Yet victory for Ukraine might in fact be closer than the West thinks, according to the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Despite Western media’s broadly negative assessment of Ukraine’s counter-offensive, including The Washington Post calling it “grim” and The Economist declaring it “sluggish”, in fact “substantial progress” is being made, said Jan Kallberg of the CEPA.

Even though the counter-offensive has been slow so far, “it could be gaining momentum”, agreed Insider.

Ukrainian forces now “believe they have broken through the most difficult line of Russian defences in the south and will now be able to advance more quickly”, Reuters news agency reported.

The liberation of Robotyne and recent Ukrainian advancements in the south and east suggest that Ukraine’s counter-offensive has in fact been “orchestrated carefully”, Mark Temnycky, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, told Newsweek.

Accordingly, “the possibility remains for Ukrainian forces to shift the momentum of the fight”, said The Spectator’s Svitlana Morenets. And “as the last week has shown, chances for a big breakthrough are still high”.