Sudan's civil war two years on: is there any hope for peace?

As Sudan's civil war enters its third year, diplomats and aid officials are meeting in London to address what the UN calls "the world's worst humanitarian crisis".

The summit, hosted by Britain, France, Germany, the EU and the African Union, "has modest ambitions", said The Independent. Rather than seeking peace, its goal is coordinating aid for the millions who are displaced and facing famine. Attendees include officials from Western nations, international bodies, and neighbouring states, yet neither the Sudanese government nor the rival paramilitary group it is fighting has been invited.

The war began on 15 April 2023, when tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted into conflict. Since then, up to 150,000 people have been killed and more than 12 million displaced. In a country of 51 million, 64% now depend on humanitarian aid. Widespread sexual violence, particularly against women and girls, has also been reported.

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As fighting continues, Sudan risks splitting into two rival administrations with the prospect of partition looking increasingly likely.

What did the commentators say?

British officials organising the summit say the chances of a significant breakthrough are "slim", not least because the "warring parties" are not invited to the summit, said The Telegraph. Diplomats are mostly hoping that some consensus can be reached behind closed doors on "how to proceed towards talks". "But we can't just park it in the 'too complicated' pile," one aide told the paper. "That's what the world has done for two years."

The conference may well "galvanise international actors", said Jehanne Henry, writing for the Middle East Institute, but "additional pressure will certainly need to be applied on those supplying or enabling the conflict's belligerents as well as on the warring sides and their allies themselves".

The US could help by pressing its allies in the Gulf, the UAE and Egypt, "to cooperate in good faith with the internationally agreed approach and to stop fuelling the conflict". But there is "no shortcut on the path to a sustainable peace in Sudan". It is a "process unto itself", and any agreements will not be useful if Sudan remains "mired in conflict, criminality and extremism".

Meanwhile, the risk of Sudan being divided grows. In February, during a summit in Kenya, the RSF announced plans to form a rival government. Yet "recent Sudanese history has shown that partition is not a risk-free solution to civil war", said The Conversation. Since South Sudan seceded in 2011, it has faced "enormous difficulties," including its own civil war, "intergroup violence, food insecurity and sanctions resulting from human rights violations".

What next?

The two sides remain a "long way from seeking peace", said The Guardian. For now, diplomacy will focus on "securing a consensus among rival external backers that a ceasefire must be demanded and impunity for war crimes will end".

The UK has pledged £120 million to provide food and nutrition supplies. However, a "harsh spotlight is also very likely to fall" on the impact of recent USAID cuts, which have hit humanitarian aid to Sudan and defunded academic groups tracking war crimes and famine.