What are the Abraham Accords and why are they under threat?

The United Arab Emirates has warned Israel that annexing the occupied West Bank would "severely undermine" the "vision and spirit" of the Abraham Accords.

The agreement, brokered in 2020 by the US, saw the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco establish full diplomatic relations with Israel. But its standing has been called into question since the 7 October attacks and Israel's subsequent military operations in Gaza and the West Bank.

What are the Abraham Accords?

The Abraham Accords are a series of agreements between Israel, UAE and Bahrain, normalising Israel's relations with the Arab nations. The initial accords, which were mediated by the US, were signed on 15 September 2020.

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The agreements established diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states for the first time since the 1994 Jordan-Israel agreement and the 1979 Egypt-Israel agreement. They led to the appointment of ambassadors and increased trade and cooperation between the countries. In December 2020, Sudan and Morocco joined the accords.

Why are they controversial?

The treaties "broke with long-standing foreign policy consensus treating peace with the Palestinians as a condition for Israel's more thorough integration with the Arab world", said The Washington Post.

The decision to normalise relations with Israel without securing progress towards a Palestinian state was met with dismay by many citizens of the signatory nations, as well as across the Middle East more generally.

Regional analysts said the signing of the accords "contributed to Palestinian alienation" that fuelled the 7 October attacks.

Why are they under threat?

After Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, unveiled a proposal for the annexation of approximately four-fifths of the West Bank, Emirati foreign ministry official Lana Nusseibeh said that the UAE had always viewed the accords "as a way to enable our continued support for the Palestinian people" and their aspiration for a state. "Annexation in the West Bank would constitute a red line for the UAE," she said.

In recent weeks, Emirati officials have spoken to both the White House and the Israeli government to warn of the consequences of annexation, according to sources.

Will Donald Trump intervene?

Trump, who oversaw the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, wants to see the agreement expanded, rather than diminished; recruiting Saudi Arabia being "the ultimate prize", said the Media Line. Asked about the overall motivation of the US president, Hadas Lorber, head of the US-Israel project at the Institute for National Security Studies, said Trump "wants a Nobel Prize".

Trump is "likely the only foreign player" who could stop Israel from annexing the West Bank, said Axios. The UAE’s message is that failing to do so would mean a "key aspect of his foreign policy legacy could unravel".