Earlier this month, two researchers at University College, London, published some surprising findings in the journal Cognition. The gambling phenomenon known as the "hot hand" — the idea that if you are on a winning streak you'll continue to win — is real. And not only is it real, but your chances of winning appear to rise significantly after each winning hand.
Juemin Xu and Nigel Harvey reached their conclusion by studying 565,915 online sports bets made by 776 gamblers in 2010. Overall, the gamblers won 40 percent of the time (the house always wins, eventually). But if one of the gamblers won, his odds of winning the next hand rose to 49 percent, then 57 percent in hand three, 67 percent in hand four, 72 percent on the fifth wager, and an insane 75 percent on the sixth consecutive winning hand. This is what that looks like in graph form, via Xu and Harvey's paper:
For losers, flip those charts horizontally: Losers keep on losing and losing. Skill had nothing to do with it either way. What's going on? "I certainly don't want people to think that if you're winning that you're more likely to win and eventually you win, win, win," Xu told says The New Yorker's Jay Caspian Kang. The key is apparently the gambler's fallacy, described by Xu and Harvey as "If you have been losing, you are more likely to win in future."
What appears to happen, according to the paper, is that "after winning, gamblers selected safer odds. After losing, they selected riskier odds." Winners keep on winning, Xu and Harvey say, because they are "worried their good luck was not going to continue, so they selected safer odds." Sure, but if you're losing, looks best to walk away. Peter Weber
Senate Majority Leader Mitch "Cocaine" McConnell (R-Ky.) "enjoyed" his re-election campaign's taunt of Senate candidate Don Blankenship after the former coal executive and ex-convict lost the West Virginia Republican primary to the state's attorney general earlier this month. Team Mitch's taunt had raised some eyebrows at the time for apparently relishing Blankenship's nickname for McConnell, "Cocaine Mitch," as well as for featuring McConnell in Pablo Escobar Narcos-inspired attire:
— Team Mitch (@Team_Mitch) May 9, 2018
President Trump announced on Thursday that he would posthumously pardon Jack Johnson, the first black heavyweight boxing champion.
Johnson was arrested in 1912 for driving his white girlfriend over state lines. Prosecutors said it violated the Mann Act, which prohibited crossing state borders with a woman for "immoral purposes." Johnson was convicted by an all-white jury and sentenced to a year in prison. He then fled the country for several years before eventually coming back to serve his time. The case is now often seen as emblematic of racism entrenched in the U.S. justice system.
Johnson died in 1946. His pardoning marks the third-ever posthumous pardon in U.S. history, reports USA Today. The Obama administration opted not to pardon Johnson in part because of allegations of domestic violence against women, The New York Times reports.
Other boxing champions were invited to the pardoning ceremony, the Times reports. Sylvester Stallone was also at the White House on Thursday — his conversation with Trump in April is reportedly what inspired the president to revisit Johnson's case. Summer Meza
As the world reels from the news that President Trump will not meet with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un in June as was expected, the commander in chief is hanging out in the Oval Office with … Rambo.
Sylvester Stallone was at the White House for the pardoning of black heavyweight champion Jack Johnson, who was convicted in 1913 of transporting his white girlfriend across state lines, The New York Times reports. Trump was convinced to pardon Jackson after talking to Stallone following the funeral of Barbara Bush in April.
As it turns out, Trump isn't the only one to unwind with Stallone in Washington lately. Jeva Lange
Very cool. After spending all day in the Senate Armed Services Committee, I went to dinner & suddenly, in to the restaurant walked...@TheSlyStallone From Rocky to Rambo to a ton of other movies that I’ve watched over and over, really enjoyed the chance to meet him! pic.twitter.com/20s66XeGQP
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) May 24, 2018
Names are important — sometimes all it takes is a great name to realize someone is a winner. But even President Trump, who made his riches off of the association of his surname with all things gold and luxurious, gets name envy sometimes.
"I think you have the greatest name in politics," Trump raved to Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) on Thursday. "If I had that name I would have been president 10 years sooner."
Trump praises Rep. Patrick McHenry for his name: "I think you have the greatest name in politics. If I had that name I would have been president 10 years sooner." pic.twitter.com/iOZWlT4tFj
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) May 24, 2018
You've gotta admit — McHenry University, McHenry Steaks, McHenry Vodka. It's kind of got a ring. Jeva Lange
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) claimed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is likely having "a giggle fit right now" over President Trump's letter calling off their planned summit in Singapore next month.
Kim "got global recognition and regard," Pelosi went on. "He's the big winner. When he got this letter from the president saying 'okay, never mind' — he must be having a giggle fit right there now in North Korea." Pelosi said that it was clear Trump didn't know what he was getting into in the negotiations with Pyongyang, and mocked the language used in his "very chummy, palsy-walsy letter." Watch below. Jeva Lange
— TicToc by Bloomberg (@tictoc) May 24, 2018
President Trump's Thursday announcement that he would not travel to Singapore next month for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un seemed to catch the South Korean government off guard.
"We are attempting to make sense of what, precisely, President Trump means," said South Korean government spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom. South Korean President Moon Jae-In called a late-night emergency meeting to discuss Trump's announcement with top aides and Cabinet members, The Washington Post reports.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declined to comment on whether or not the U.S. gave South Korea and Japan a warning that Trump would cancel the summit. Pompeo said that North Korea was not responsive over recent weeks while the U.S. tried to prepare for the meeting. The Post reported on Tuesday that a North Korean delegation didn't show up at a recent planning meeting with U.S. leaders. Hours before Trump pulled out of the summit, however, North Korea did make a show of destroying its nuclear test site. Summer Meza
Eight women have accused actor Morgan Freeman of inappropriate behavior and sexual harassment, reports CNN.
People who worked with Freeman on film sets or during press tours said that the actor would ogle women, try and lift their skirts, engage in inappropriate touching, and make suggestive comments. Freeman did not comment on the allegations. Former employees and coworkers told CNN that Freeman acted like a "creepy uncle" who would make "vulgar" comments about women, often remarking on their bodies and the way they dressed.
"He would be verbally inappropriate and it was just shocking," one former employee of Freeman's production company told CNN. Freeman would allegedly make approving comments when women wore revealing clothing, and one former production assistant said that he repeatedly tried to lift her skirt, asking whether she was wearing underwear.
Eight women said they had been harassed, and eight other people said they had witnessed Freeman's alleged misconduct. The women say they didn't report Freeman's behavior out of fear that it would negatively affect their careers. Some women said they would dress differently when they knew Freeman would be on set, in an attempt to avoid unwanted comments or touching. Read more at CNN. Summer Meza