Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio is nearly 15 points behind in his reelection race

After 23 years in office, the notorious Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) might not win re-election. The latest Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll of the Arizona county sheriff's race shows Arpaio nearly 15 points behind Democrat Paul Penzone, 45.9 percent to 31.1 percent. Arpaio, who calls himself "America's toughest sheriff," made national headlines last year when he spoke out in favor of Donald Trump and joined him in the mission to "seek the truth" about President Obama's birth certificate.

Arpaio's massive slip is likely due — at least in part — to voters' widespread opposition to building a border wall and deporting all undocumented immigrants, both proposals Arpaio supports. The poll found that 30.8 percent of the county's voters strongly disagree with mass deportation, while 41.7 percent disagree. As for the wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, 43.8 percent of registered voters in the county said it should "definitely not" be built.

Arpaio's campaign has brushed off the poll's results as inaccurate, claiming the survey "included two and half times as many Democrats as Republicans." "It is so screwed up it's not worth the paper it's printed on, with all due respect," said Arpaio campaign manager Chad Willems, vowing that Arpaio will win re-election by a "landslide."

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The poll was taken from Oct. 10-15 in English and Spanish, and reached out to 1,200 people on "up-to-date voter registration lists," producing 811 valid responses. The margin of error on the sheriff's race is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. The margin of error for the immigration-related questions is plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.