Revealed: the expert advice Boris Johnson ignored as UK coronavirus cases spiralled
Documents released by Sage show prime minister dismissed calls for September lockdown
Downing Street ignored advice from the government’s own experts to implement an immediate “circuit breaker” lockdown in September in order to curb the spread of Covid-19, newly published documents show.
Following Boris Johnson’s announcement yesterday of a new three-tier lockdown system, the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) published a series of minutes that show the prime minister overruled scientists who called warned three weeks ago that the country faced a “very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences” unless urgent action was taken.
The revelation comes amid growing criticism of No. 10’s response to the pandemic - and throws into doubt claims that ministers are simply “following the science”.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
‘Bombshell after bombshell’
The Sage documents show that government scientists “pressed for national lockdown measures such as stopping all household mixing and closing all pubs”, The Telegraph reports.
Ministers were also advised to “consider for immediate introduction” the closure of restaurants, cafes and gyms, and a return to official guidance that all staff should work from home if possible. And all university and college teaching should be online “unless face-to-face teaching is absolutely essential”, Sage said.
“The more rapidly interventions are put in place, and the more stringent they are, the faster the reduction in incidence and prevalence and the greater the reduction in Covid-related deaths,” the experts advised. “Both local and national measures are needed; measures should not be applied in too specific a geographical area.”
But rather than acting on the recommendation for a nationwide “circuit-breaker” lockdown, Johnson opted instead for more localised restrictions that failed to curb the spike in coronavirus infections.
Minutes from a Zoom meeting on 21 September “show in stark terms that Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty, Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance and the government’s other scientific advisers are now publicly at odds with the policy being pursued by Boris Johnson and his ministers”, says Politico London Playbook’s Alex Wickham.
Only one of the measures recommended by the experts was implemented, with the PM issuing a statement the following day urging employees to work from home. Others restrictions advocated by Sage, such as closing down parts of the hospitality sector, were implemented only in the worst-hit areas of the country.
Ministers were also warned that failure to act would see a second wave of the virus “fall disproportionately on the frailest in our society, but also those on lower incomes and BAME communities”.
The scientists said that as “over 90% of the population remain susceptible, not acting now to reduce cases will result in a very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences in terms of direct Covid-related deaths and the ability of the health service to meet needs”.
‘Following the science’
Since the global outbreak reached the UK back in early spring, Johnson and his cabinet have repeatedly insisted that they have consulted scientists on how to tackle the health crisis effectively.
But as Politico’s Wickham says, “you can expect the prime minister’s critics to spend today asking whether the government is doing enough to prevent a disastrous death toll during the second wave [and] why it rejected the advice of its experts”.
Sage “conceded its advice would have a negative economic impact”, notes the political pundit, who suggests that “the economic argument ultimately quite simply won out over the public health concerns”.
On 22 September - a day after the Zoom meeting with Whitty and Vallance - Johnson was reported to have sided with Chancellor Rishi Sunak against lockdown hawks in his cabinet who were also calling for nationwide measures.
Despite scientists’ verdict that “single interventions by themselves” would not bring the reproduction rate of the virus below one, Downing Street continued with the strategy of imposing only localised restrictions.
The publication of the Sage documents is now raising fresh “questions over the prime minister’s decision to introduce the tightest restrictions only on Merseyside”, reports The Times, which notes that the PM is “pressing other northern cities to agree to similar restrictions”.
“This all helps to explain why Whitty not very subtly dumped on Johnson’s three-tier strategy while standing next to him at yesterday’s [daily government] press conference,” adds Politico’s Wickham.
“While he was careful to insist the government’s policy would ‘help’ slow the spread of the virus, the chief medical officer said he was ‘not confident’ the base level of restrictions in ‘very high’ alert areas would be enough to get on top of it.”
Testing times
The Sage files also offer a “damning assessment” of the NHS Test and Trace scheme, which the panel of government advisers had previously said “needed to be working effectively before the national lockdown was lifted, and when schools reopened”, says The Guardian.
The experts warned the government last month that “low levels of engagement” and testing delays meant the system was “having a marginal impact on transmission”.
“Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of test, trace and isolate will further decline in the future,” the scientists added.
Despite the guidance, Johnson said on 22 September that testing and tracing has “very little or nothing to do with the spread and transmission” of the Covid-19 coronavirus.
During a debate in Commons, he insisted that the spread “is caused by contact between human beings and all the things that we’re trying to minimise” - a statement that shadow health secretary Jon Ashworth dismissed as “nonsense” in a subsequent tweet.
The system has so far cost £12bn, and 2,000 contact tracing staff have been laid off in recent weeks despite rising infection rates.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joe Evans is the world news editor at TheWeek.co.uk. He joined the team in 2019 and held roles including deputy news editor and acting news editor before moving into his current position in early 2021. He is a regular panellist on The Week Unwrapped podcast, discussing politics and foreign affairs.
Before joining The Week, he worked as a freelance journalist covering the UK and Ireland for German newspapers and magazines. A series of features on Brexit and the Irish border got him nominated for the Hostwriter Prize in 2019. Prior to settling down in London, he lived and worked in Cambodia, where he ran communications for a non-governmental organisation and worked as a journalist covering Southeast Asia. He has a master’s degree in journalism from City, University of London, and before that studied English Literature at the University of Manchester.
-
7 beautiful towns to visit in Switzerland during the holidays
The Week Recommends Find bliss in these charming Swiss locales that blend the traditional with the modern
By Catherine Garcia, The Week US Published
-
The Week contest: Werewolf bill
Puzzles and Quizzes
By The Week US Published
-
'This needs to be a bigger deal'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
John Prescott: was he Labour's last link to the working class?
Today's Big Quesiton 'A total one-off': tributes have poured in for the former deputy PM and trade unionist
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Last hopes for justice for UK's nuclear test veterans
Under the Radar Thousands of ex-service personnel say their lives have been blighted by aggressive cancers and genetic mutations
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Will Donald Trump wreck the Brexit deal?
Today's Big Question President-elect's victory could help UK's reset with the EU, but a free-trade agreement with the US to dodge his threatened tariffs could hinder it
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Bob Woodward's War: the explosive Trump revelations
In the spotlight Nobody can beat Watergate veteran at 'getting the story of the White House from the inside'
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Trump kept up with Putin, sent Covid tests, book says
Speed Read The revelation comes courtesy of a new book by Bob Woodward
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
'The federal government's response to the latest surge has been tepid at best'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published