US election: why the price of soybeans could swing the Senate for the Democrats
An agricultural faux pas could hand control of the chamber to Joe Biden’s party
Joni Ernst, the Republican senator from Iowa, won her seat by nine points in 2014. And her home state backed Donald Trump for president by the same margin four years ago.
Yet she now finds herself locked in “an unexpectedly close reelection fight”, Vox reports - and one which may come down to the price of soybeans.
During a televised debate last week, Ernst was asked at what price soybean farmers would break even. She hesitated, “delivered a long response about trade policy”, says CNN, before finally saying it was “probably about $5.50 (£4.20)” - just over half the actual figure.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
In other settings, such a slip might be forgiven, says The Times. “If you are the Republican senator for the heavily rural state of Iowa, however, ignorance in this field is a big mistake.”
It didn’t help that her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, “nailed an answer about the price of corn during the same debate”, adds CNN.
Ernst’s soybean snafu may “not only help determine whether she is re-elected next week but also which party controls the Senate for the next two years”, says The Times, “with significant ramifications, especially if Joe Biden defeats President Trump.”
However, says CNN, “a bigger challenge for Ernst could be the headwinds she is encountering” from the president himself, who may well lose in Iowa.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Ernst has allied herself closely with Trump: she was the only senator up for re-election who spoke at his convention in August and has claimed that he invited her to be his running mate in 2016.
Her hopes - and that of the Republican majority in the Senate - may now depend on another forecasting error. The race appears to be neck and neck, says The Times, but “polls in 2016 overstated Democratic support by 4.3 points and in the 2018 midterms by 3.7 points”.
Holden Frith is The Week’s digital director. He also makes regular appearances on “The Week Unwrapped”, speaking about subjects as diverse as vaccine development and bionic bomb-sniffing locusts. He joined The Week in 2013, spending five years editing the magazine’s website. Before that, he was deputy digital editor at The Sunday Times. He has also been TheTimes.co.uk’s technology editor and the launch editor of Wired magazine’s UK website. Holden has worked in journalism for nearly two decades, having started his professional career while completing an English literature degree at Cambridge University. He followed that with a master’s degree in journalism from Northwestern University in Chicago. A keen photographer, he also writes travel features whenever he gets the chance.
-
No Kings rally: What did it achieve?Feature The latest ‘No Kings’ march has become the largest protest in U.S. history
-
Push for Ukraine ceasefire collapsesFeature Talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin were called off after the Russian president refused to compromise on his demands
-
Trump eyes regime change in VenezuelaFeature Officials believe Trump’s ‘war on narco-terrorism’ is actually a push to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
-
‘Social media is the new tabloid’Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
How are ICE’s recruitment woes complicating Trump’s immigration agenda?TODAY’S BIG QUESTION Lowered training standards and ‘athletically allergic’ hopefuls are hindering the White House plan to turn the Department of Homeland Security into a federal police force
-
Trump vows new tariffs on Canada over Reagan adspeed read The ad that offended the president has Ronald Reagan explaining why import taxes hurt the economy
-
Donald Trump’s week in Asia: can he shift power away from China?Today's Big Question US president’s whirlwind week of diplomacy aims to bolster economic ties and de-escalate trade war with China
-
Marjorie Taylor Greene’s rebellion: Maga hardliner turns on TrumpIn the Spotlight The Georgia congresswoman’s independent streak has ‘not gone unnoticed’ by the president


