US election: could the polls be wrong and what happens if they are?
Biden leads Trump by a large margin across the country - but the spectre of 2016 looms large

With the US election just weeks away, Donald Trump appears to have a mountain to climb having trailed Joe Biden in nationwide polls for months.
But as many Hillary Clinton supporters learned in 2016, opinion polling is not always the best predictor of the election outcome.
Biden’s polling lead is considerably larger than Clinton’s ever was, however, a lingering sense of doubt accompanies every new survey claiming that the former vice president is on course for a landslide victory. So what happens if the polls are wrong?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What went wrong in 2016?
Contrary to the assessments of those who “swore off polls for ever” in the wake of the 2016 election, the polls were not necessarily wrong but misunderstood, The Times says.
US presidential elections are two-stage, state-by-state contests finalised through the Electoral College and do not directly represent the popular vote.
In almost all states, the candidate who has the highest vote total takes all the delegates for that state, and the candidate who seals a majority (270 or more) of the Electoral College wins the election.
As a result, it is possible for a candidate to win a plurality of votes but still lose the election, making opinion polling a less accurate predictor in tight races.
This is exactly what happened in 2016.
Pollster RealClearPolitics showed Clinton averaged a 3.2 percentage point lead over Trump across the US on the day of the election. She ended up winning the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points, “a 1.1 point difference that is within the margin of error for most polls”, Business Insider says.
But through a targeted campaign strategy, Trump took advantage of the Electoral College in a highly efficient way, converting just 46% of the popular vote into 56.5% of the Electoral College and taking the White House.
How does Biden’s lead compare?
Biden’s polling lead over Trump is significantly wider than Clinton’s ever was. Ahead of the first presidential debate on Tuesday, the ex-vice president held a seven-point advantage over Trump, increasing to eight after the showdown.
This is the largest polling lead at this point in an election cycle since former president Bill Clinton’s re-election in 1996, Newsweek reports.
And “even assuming that current national and state polls were as far off from the final result as they were in 2016”, Biden would “still win the Electoral College and five of the top six states analysts say are likely to decide the election”, Business Insider adds.
Can the polls be trusted?
This all depends on how we view them.
At a national level, polls show the number of people likely to vote for a candidate without taking into account the Electoral College. So any definitive predictions made using their figures run the risk of being incorrect.
It was an unusual year in 2016, in that a large number of voters remained undecided right up until polling day. This made predicting the outcome of the vote harder, the Pew Research Centre says.
That is not the case in 2020, where there is a smaller number of undecided voters than in most election years.
One thing worth taking into account, however, is the small number of major discrepancies in polling at state level in 2016. One example is Wisconsin, which Trump won by a margin of 0.7%, but which polls had Clinton leading by 6.5 points on average.
What happens if polls are wrong?
In 2016, incorrect polling predictions were surprising. In 2020, a similar outcome would be seismic.
“Only once in more than 80 years of polling” has a lead of the size that Biden now enjoys been overturned by election day, The Article reports. This was in 1948, when President Truman came from behind to defeat Thomas Dewey.
“So can we be certain that Trump will lose?” The Article asks. “No: but if he wins he will have achieved something that no candidate has managed for 72 years.”
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
IMF sees slump from tariffs, Trump tries to calm markets
Speed Read The International Monetary Fund predicts the U.S. and global economies will slow significantly due to the president's trade war
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Susan Page's 6 favorite books about historical figures who stood up to authority
Feature The USA Today's Washington bureau chief recommends works by Catherine Clinton, Alexei Navalny, and more
By The Week US
-
Today's political cartoons - April 23, 2025
Cartoons Wednesday's cartoons - a new hat, a new retirement plan, and more
By The Week US
-
IMF sees slump from tariffs, Trump tries to calm markets
Speed Read The International Monetary Fund predicts the U.S. and global economies will slow significantly due to the president's trade war
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Climate: Trump's attempt to bring back coal
Feature Trump rolls back climate policies with executive orders aimed at reviving the coal industry
By The Week US
-
Trump's budget: Gutting Medicaid to pass tax cuts?
Feature To extend Trump's tax cuts, the GOP is looking to cut Medicaid and other assistance programs
By The Week US
-
Trump tariffs place trucking industry in the crosshairs
IN THE SPOTLIGHT As the White House barrels ahead with its massive tariff project, American truckers are feeling the heat from a global trade war
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Trump stands by Hegseth amid ouster reports
Speed Read The president dismissed reports that he was on the verge of firing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over a second national security breach
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Corruption: The road to crony capitalism
Feature Trump's tariff pause sent the stock market soaring — was it insider trading?
By The Week US
-
How 'China shock 2.0' will roil global markets
Feature An overflow of Chinese goods is flooding the global market. Tariffs won’t stop it.
By The Week US
-
Retribution: Trump calls for prosecution of critics
Feature Trump targets former officials who spoke out against him, sending a warning to future whistleblowers
By The Week US