8 Election Day predictions from the nation's leading pollsters

(Image credit: Illustrated | Getty Images)

published 8 November 2022

Election Day is finally here.

Over the past several weeks, Democrats and Republicans have crisscrossed their electoral districts and regions, making closing campaign arguments to drum up voter enthusiasm. Midterm polls show that a focus on the economy, inflation, and crime has benefited Republicans, especially in the House, where they're in the lead. In contrast, Democrats' brief momentum seems to be fizzling out. While polls widely hint that voters should expect a red wave, some pundits still see a chance of Democrats at least maintaining Senate control.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Politico's most recent election forecast predicts Republicans will win the House, but control of the Senate is still a toss-up. In terms of the gubernatorial races, the publication expects Democratic governors will lead most Americans. Steve Shepard, Politico's chief polling analyst, says voters should anticipate the party in the White House losing some ground: "The first midterm election is historically a bear for the president's party, and this year is expected to be no different," he writes. "Republicans are likely to gain upward of 15 House seats, and they have a good shot of taking full control of Congress." That said, "in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats are still in the hunt — thanks to their candidates' strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings."

In another recent update to the Politico forecast, Shepard notes that a critical Senate race in New Hampshire moved toward Republicans, going from "lean Democratic" to "toss up" — a signal that the GOP was gaining momentum in the waning days of the campaign cycle. Shepard acknowledges that the Senate majority is within reach for both parties but says "the range of plausible outcomes now includes a sizable Republican majority: A sweep of the six 'toss up' races would give the GOP 54 seats."

FiveThirtyEight says that Republicans have a 54 percent chance of winning both chambers of Congress, compared to Democrats with a 15 percent chance. The House and Senate races have both moved more in Republican's favor in the publication's most recent predictions: Republicans, for example, are easily favored to win the House, with FiveThirtyEight rating their chances at 84 percent to Democrats 16 — a lead that jumped around 10 points in the last few weeks of October.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight's editor-in-chief, played devil's advocate by simulating a conversation between himself and his alter-egos, "Nathan Redd" and "Nathaniel Bleu." The pair presented respective cases for "a Republican sweep" or "a Democratic surprise" on Election Day. Redd's side argued that Biden's low approval rating and voters' dissatisfaction with the country's direction will lead to a clean sweep for Republicans. But Silver rejected that argument as oversimplified, saying, "Voters may be unhappy, but they're agnostic about which party they prefer." Bleu, meanwhile, harkened back to the Democrats' performance in special elections over the summer as a bright light in their favor. Silver's counter to that, however, was that the Democrats had fallen behind since then, and "the polls have been pretty clear in showing a Republican rebound."

He believes that Democrats are still putting up a fight for Senate control. "The party appears to be highly competitive in the key Senate races, like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. In these states, Republicans have nominated relatively weak candidates who might underperform, even in a favorable national political environment. And there are other bright spots for Democratic candidates in states like Michigan and Kansas, where abortion remains much on the minds of voters."

Cook says the outcome of the upcoming elections is an "open question." He concludes, "My personal hunch is Democrats suffer net losses of at least 20 seats, but in the Senate, the difference between either party picking up or losing a seat or two could easily be minimal. In the upper chamber, the party that wins three of the following four contests will be in the driver's seat: the Democratic-held seats in Georgia and Nevada, and the two Republican open seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania."

Political commentator Frank Luntz argues in a tweet that Republicans' choice to focus on the economy over President Biden's closing warnings about the fragility of democracy is "a big GOP advantage." He added: "The American public prioritizes inflation and affordability over Jan. 6. And when Oregon and New York break for the @GOP on crime, something big is about to happen. For the first time, the GOP has taken a Senate lead. And in the House, my new projection is 231-236 seats."

He also believes that the more important thing to consider is what will happen in the days following the election. "I'm scared of the vote counting," Luntz says. He warns that Philadelphia will be "ground zero" for a "crap show," noting that the state counts votes "so slowly" and leaves early voting ballots, which tend to break for Democrats, for later in the day. As a result, "you're going to have people claiming that the election is stolen, once again."

"Based on polling models, I expect Republicans to take the House and now the Senate, but the seat margin may be small in the Senate," she says. "Polls in key Senate races show more Americans want Republicans to take control of the Senate than are voting for their state's Republican Senate candidate. This suggests Republicans are running weaker candidates in some key races. The overturning of Roe also has been helping Democrats, but doesn't seem to have overcome voters' concerns about inflation."

Ekans believes that polls could undercut support for the GOP and may hide the magnitude of the Republican takeover. "There's a real possibility that polls are once again underestimating Republican support," she notes. "There are some markers for non-response bias, in particular, Democrats are more enthusiastic about taking surveys in some key states. So there may be more of a red wave this year than we think."

In his final House forecast for The Cook Political Report, analyst David Wasserman previews for Politico Playbook that "heading into Election Day, 212 seats are at least Lean Republican, 188 seats are at least Lean Democrat, and there are 35 Toss Ups. If those Toss Ups were to split evenly down the middle, Republicans would wind up at around 230 seats (+17). We believe a Republican gain of 15 to 25 seats is most likely, but it wouldn't be terribly surprising if the Toss Ups broke mostly their way, pushing GOP gains even higher."

Explore More

Theara Coleman has worked as a staff writer at The Week since September 2022. She frequently writes about technology, education, literature and general news. She was previously a contributing writer and assistant editor at Honeysuckle Magazine, where she covered racial politics and cannabis industry news.