Has Tunisia discarded Islamism for 'enlightened' secularism?

Tunisia, the country where the Arab Spring of 2011 first began, has won plaudits for holding largely peaceful elections that have brought a new party to power, with few reports of voting irregularities or intimidation at the ballot box.

Commentators have also hailed the democratic transition of power from the Islamist Enaahda party to the self-styled secular modernists of Nidaa Tounes.

But can Tunisia be regarded as the standard-bearer for progress in a region that since 2011 has slid largely towards chaos, civil war and military coups? According to analysts the political reality is far more nuanced.

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Is post-revolutionary Tunisia a success?

"Tunisia's democracy is an impressive achievement," says Bloomberg, "yet the country's political success is fragile to say the least".

The country has been praised by commentators for its broad political achievements since the revolution that overthrew the dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, including the adoption of a modern democratic constitution that won the support of 93 per cent of the nation's diverse political parties.

According to Soumaya Ghannoushi, writing in The Guardian, Tunisia now has "the most progressive constitution in the Arab region, enshrining women's rights, freedom of belief, conscience, and worship, and banning incitement to violence and religious excommunication".

However, the country's political transition has not been a complete success. Unemployment still sits at more than 15 per cent – higher than when Tunisia was spurred towards revolution. In some of the more neglected regions of the country unemployment still exceeds 30 per cent. The country also has a spluttering economy that is growing at a rate of 2.3 per cent.

According to the World Bank, Tunisia continues to suffer from poor incentives for export manufacturers, weak bankruptcy laws and "misguided" agricultural supports that together cost the country 13 per cent of its GDP.

With rigid labour laws and ongoing problems with corruption and cronyism "it's a wonder the economy grows at all," Bloomberg says.

What can be done to aid Tunisia's transition?

Europe has promised to open up markets to Tunisia in exchange for the country's efforts to reform. But, Roger Boyes of The Times says the incentive is "wrong-headed on two counts". First it suggests that closeness to the EU guarantees stability, and second it assumes that Tunisia wishes to get closer to the EU in the first place.

It is "stupefyingly arrogant" to assume Tunisia wants to become European, Boyes says. Rather, "Tunisians want an economy that grows at five per cent a year (rather than 2.3 per cent), they want to win over business confidence in a bad neighbourhood and they want security".

Europe and the US must deliver on the promises of aid made "in the flush of the Arab Spring but not delivered," Bloomberg says. To do so "would be easily affordable, given Tunisia's small size".

What is known about Nidaa Tounes?

Nidaa Tounes is a political party that was founded in mid-2012 by Beji Caid Essebsi, an 87-year-old politician who served in both the Bourguiba and Ben Ali regimes. The party is "an electoral front comprised primarily of leftists and individuals associated with Ben Ali's now-dismembered RCD party and organised around its one charismatic leader, Beji Caid Essebsi", says The Guardian's Monica Marks.

While many in the West may feel "kinship" with the party due to its secular label "we should exercise caution in labelling Nidaa Tounes's victory part of a seamless sweep of democratic achievements, or seeing Sunday's vote as a clear referendum against all varieties of political Islam", Marks says.

In fact Nidaa Tounes's internal structure is "noticeably more authoritarian than [the Islamist party] Ennahda". And some insiders say that the party could be over-represented by former members of the Ben Ali regime, and overly acquiescent to its leader, Essebsi. Some even fear that the party could gradually devolve into the kind of authoritarianism Tunisia rejected when it toppled Ben Ali three years ago.

Whether Nidaa Tounes continues to support the country's political emergence or "drifts toward authoritarian models of decades past remains to be seen", Marks says. For now, observers should resist the "simplistic tendency to frame Tunisia's transition as a conflict between enlightened 'democratic' secularists and backwards Islamists. The reality is far more complex."