Why Trump's re-election still seems likely

He's not going anywhere

President Trump.

We are apparently living in a blue world, like the one described in that Eurotrash novelty song. The question is not whether Joe Biden is going to be the next president of the United States, but how big the margin will be. Will he win 300 electoral votes? Four hundred? How many states is he going to flip in the Solid South? When will the Truth and Reconciliation process begin? How soon after the inauguration will the media declare that the war against COVID has been won?

These things are, with one obvious exception, being discussed by The New York Times, The Economist, that one sports statistics blog, and the rest of the usual suspects with the sort of yawn-inducing certainty you would expect. The best odds I can find for President Trump's re-election in any mainstream publication are 12 percent, but other able prognosticators are more likely to put his chances in the low single digits.

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Matthew Walther

Matthew Walther is a national correspondent at The Week. His work has also appeared in First Things, The Spectator of London, The Catholic Herald, National Review, and other publications. He is currently writing a biography of the Rev. Montague Summers. He is also a Robert Novak Journalism Fellow.