What Germany’s political crisis means for Brexit

Angela Merkel is facing her biggest challenge in 12 years as German Chancellor, after talks aimed at forming a new coalition government collapsed.

And her discomfort is either “an opportunity not to be missed for Britain in its Brexit negotiations”, says the Daily Mail, or, says The Guardian, “cruelly timed” for a UK Government banking on German support.

Constitutional impasse

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After a deadline to agree a power-sharing deal passed on Sunday, the free market liberal FDP pulled out of talks, claiming there was “no basis of trust” between the Chancellor’s conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the Greens.

There have been numerous reports of deep divisions between the parties on issues such as tax, the environment and - most importantly - immigration.

Germany’s President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the country was facing an “unprecedented situation” and called on party leaders to resume talks. However, the proposed coalition was Merkel’s only shot at forming a new government - and its collapse “could spell the end of the Merkel era”, says the BBC.

It is thought Merkel will now either attempt to form a minority government or, more likely, call another election to break the deadlock.

Post-war Germany has never had a minority government. The concept is “untested, unsuited to the country’s political mechanics and would dramatically weaken Merkel’s standing at home and across the European Union”, says Sky News.

It is also far from certain Merkel’s own party would want her to lead them into a new election. A private study commissioned by the CDU in the aftermath of September’s election found the party might have done better under different leadership.

On a Europe-wide level, the breakdown of the talks “sets back Emmanuel Macron’s hopes of persuading Germany to reform Eurozone priorities and structures”, wrties Martin Kettle in The Guardian.

Prolonged political uncertainty in Europe’s biggest economy will delay reforms that would better protect the eurozone against the next downturn or crisis, agrees Reuters, “but a wholesale revamp of the single currency area will in the end be easier if Merkel doesn’t have to pander to a party that opposes regional fiscal integration” in the form of the FDP.

Brexit impact

The crisis could have a seismic effect on Brexit negotiations.

Under Brexit Secretary David Davis, the British “have always blithely assumed that Merkel would somehow ride to the UK’s rescue”, says Kettle. However, “the idea that Merkel will or could somehow magic an 11th-hour solution favourable to Britain is simply for the birds”, he adds - especially now she is fighting for her political life.

You might imagine the departure of “mutti”, as the Germans like to call their head of government, would “be bad for Europe, and for Germany itself”, says Sean O’Grady in The Independent. But it might “actually be good for Britain, in the narrow sense of opening up the possibility of a better, more generous deal on Brexit”.

This more generous deal might be driven by a successor to Merkel who is more concerned with maintaining free trade than with keeping freedom of movement within the bloc, offering a potential olive branch to both Brexiteers and the UK’s Brexit negotiators.

The fate of the world’s most powerful woman “is now largely out of her hands”, says The Daily Telegraph. Merkel must fight for her political survival, but “the leader who for so many people has represented stability now is fast becoming a symbol of crisis in the heart of Europe”, says Hill.