2023 Oscars: 12 contenders who could earn surprise nominations

(Image credit: Illustrated | Getty Images)

published 22 January 2023

The 2023 Oscar nominations are days away, and while pundits believe they have a decent sense of what the field will look like, the Academy loves throwing curveballs. So who are those contenders on the outskirts of the race who could surprise everyone this year? Let's take a look at some possibilities:

Andrea Riseborough for Best Actress

Even close followers of the Oscar race would be forgiven for not realizing until recently that Andrea Riseborough even has a film in contention. But just in time for Oscar voting, celebrity after celebrity started raving about her performance in the obscure indie movie To Leslie, which sure looked like a coordinated push for a film that didn't have much of a marketing budget to participate in the race before now.

Our projected Best Actress nominees remain Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once). Given the last-minute nature of her campaign, Riseborough sneaking in would be among the biggest Oscar shockers in recent memory. But she did appear to amass support in the actors' branch, the Academy's largest, at a crucial time just as voting was about to open, so it's not off the table.

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Blonde was flat-out panned by many critics for being exploitative, but de Armas' performance was still widely praised, and she has managed to snag nominations at the Golden Globe Awards (where Colin Farrell notably praised her work in his speech), the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and the British Academy Film Awards. The latter two ceremonies share voters with the Academy, and both notably left out Michelle Williams.

We're predicting it will be Paul Mescal for Aftersun, though some pundits are going with Tom Cruise for Top Gun: Maverick. But a dark horse is Adam Sandler for the Netflix basketball film Hustle. He has never been nominated for an Oscar but was considered one of the biggest snubs in 2020 after being left out for Uncut Gems, so some voters could feel compelled to set that wrong right. Most importantly, Sandler actually was nominated at the SAG Awards for Hustle. That ceremony doesn't always forecast the Oscars exactly, but there's overlap between the voting bodies, and actors make up the biggest branch of the Academy.

His biggest asset, though, is that he stars in one of the Best Picture frontrunners, so it's easy to imagine voters backing the star of the film they plan to award the top prize, particularly if they aren't quite sure who should get that last Best Actor spot. Besides, the Academy tends to love performances as real people, and while The Fabelmans isn't a biopic, LaBelle is essentially playing Spielberg, a Hollywood titan.

But in recent days, there's been talk that voters could simply nominate her as a supporting actress anyway. Keep in mind, Universal's Best Actress push is just a suggestion, and voters can place her in whatever category they see fit. Indeed, Variety's Clayton Davis reported that "at least two branch voters tell Variety they voted for the four-time nominee in supporting actress." The Hollywood Reporter awards editor Scott Feinberg has also predicted Williams will receive a supporting, not lead, actress nomination.

It would be a similar situation to when Kate Winslet was nominated as a supporting actress for The Reader at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, only to be nominated as a lead actress at the Oscars. Lakeith Stanfield was also nominated as a supporting actor for Judas and the Black Messiah in 2021 despite being campaigned as a lead. But there's the risk that so much disagreement over what category Williams should be placed in leads to her not being nominated at all, as she was already snubbed at the BAFTAs and SAG Awards.

We think Best Supporting Actor will consist of Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once). Banshees or Fabelmans could fail to net two nominations, though, if Eddie Redmayne instead sneaks in for The Good Nurse, which is very possible after he was nominated at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and British Academy Film Awards.

But could the biggest shock of the morning instead be a nomination for a performance that some critics actually panned? Tom Hanks really gtoes for it in his role as Colonel Tom Parker in Elvis, though reviews were divided on his use of a "fat suit" and strange accent. But Elvis star Austin Butler is already set to be nominated for Best Actor, so Hanks could ride his coattails. It could sort of be this year's equivalent of Judi Dench, an industry legend, being unexpectedly nominated for Belfast last year despite not having much buzz beforehand.

Granted, the Academy hasn't been afraid to snub Hanks in the past like when he wasn't nominated for Captain Phillips. But voters' desire to honor him this time combined with their love of Elvis in general and admiration of such a transformative performance could overcome that. There are also signs Elvis could overperform at the Oscars after it earned a whopping nine nominations at the BAFTAs, just one shy of Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Henry received acclaim for the performance, which is arguably the most emotional of the film, and while he wasn't nominated at the SAG Awards or the BAFTAs, he did receive a nomination at the Critics' Choice Awards and Independent Spirit Awards. Plus, don't underestimate Apple's ability to pour mountains of cash into netting nominations. The streamer won Best Picture last year, after all, and without a likely nominee for the top prize this time, Henry would be the contender for Apple to hone in on.

But there have been multiple instances in recent years of dark horse contenders who directed non-English language films surprisingly sneaking in, such as Drive My Car's Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Another Round's Thomas Vinterberg, and Cold War's Paweł Pawlikowski. So who could be the 2023 equivalent? The most likely possibility is Edward Berger for Netflix's German war film All Quiet on the Western Front, which has been discussed as a potential Best Picture nominee, and it led the British Academy Film Award nominations with an impressive 14 nods.

An alternate surprise would be S.S.Rajamouli for RRR. The three-hour Indian epic recently won a Golden Globe for Best Original Song and could repeat at the Oscars and potentially go further, with one of India's biggest film directors getting some Academy love for the first time. The film also seems to have impressed some industry titans, and Rajamouli has recently been spotted engaging in friendly conversations with Steven Spielberg and James Cameron, the latter of whom heaped praise on RRR and admitted he has already seen it twice. Berger has a better shot at the nomination, though, as he was nominated for Best Director at the British Academy Film Awards and Rajamouli wasn't. Alternatively, keep an eye on Decision to Leave's Park Chan-wook, who also earned a BAFTA nod.

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Brendan worked as a culture writer at The Week from 2018 to 2023, covering the entertainment industry, including film reviews, television recaps, awards season, the box office, major movie franchises and Hollywood gossip. He has written about film and television for outlets including Bloody Disgusting, Showbiz Cheat Sheet, Heavy and The Celebrity Cafe.