Do bank failures mean the Fed should slow its interest rate hikes?
Choosing between reining in inflation and financial stability
Economic disasters are colliding. The collapse of American banks like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and the near-miss with Credit Suisse bank in Switzerland — before USB bought it this week — have sent still-reverberating shock waves throughout the world of finance. Those failures come just as the Federal Reserve meets this week to decide whether to raise interest rates again in its ongoing attempt to rein in still-rampant inflation afflicting the United States and much of the rest of the world.
How are the two related? Economists say the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, for example, was sparked by the Fed's recent rate hikes. While "there's lots of blame to go around," The Washington Post's Abha Bhattarai explains that the rise in rates made investors "more interested in new bonds that promised to pay more," while older bonds with lower rates "became less desirable — and therefore less valuable." A lot of assets in those suddenly-struggling banks were tied up in those older bonds.
That has raised the question of whether the Fed should press ahead with its inflation-fighting rate hikes — or if it should slow down rather than risk tipping over the entire banking system. Goldman Sachs forecasters say they don't expect a rate hike this month, but "few, if any" other Wall Street analysts share that view, CNBC reports. "This is a very tough job," Bloomberg's Michael Mackenzie adds. All eyes will be on the Fed this week, with an eye on how Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tries to find balance "without stirring further concerns — either for financial stability or inflation."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What are commentators saying?
The Washington Post editorial board highlights research showing that 190 banks across the country are at risk of a Silicon Valley Bank-style collapse if their customers lose confidence. That has "triggered concerns about what is next to rupture," the board argues, which is why the Fed should pause rate hikes "to give the financial system time to adjust to the new reality."
Not so fast. "I don't think the Fed has any good options here," economist Tim Duy tells Reuters. "The risk is allowing inflation to become even more embedded versus the risk of aggravating a broader banking crisis." But Reuters points out that the bank failures may help accomplish the Fed's mission of bringing inflation under control: Banking stress probably means a credit contraction is coming — less money will be loaned out to homeowners and businesses, which is less money that they'll spend, which should ease inflationary pressures. "To a degree that is what the Fed wants when it tightens monetary policy, as long as the drop in lending is orderly and doesn't go too far." That might mean the Fed can pause rate hikes without letting inflation run wild. "There's nothing more deflationary than the collapse of a highly-indebted bank," says CNBC's Jim Cramer.
History doesn't offer happy lessons in these situations, however. "When the Fed starts hiking rates, it typically keeps at it until something breaks," Alexander Kurov writes at The Conversation. (The rate hikes of the late 1970s, for example, pushed the American economy into a massive recession before inflation cooled off.) But it's "not so simple" to suggest that the Fed should slow down the rise in interest rates: A slowdown could have the perverse effect of signaling to investors that the broader banking system is more fragile than they thought. Then again: "Increasing rates at a moment like this would mean putting more pressure on a structure that's already under a lot of stress."
What's next for the Fed?
It seems possible we'll get a compromise action this week from the Fed — a rate hike, but not one nearly as big as originally planned. "Many economists expect central bankers to raise interest rates a quarter-point," The New York Times reports, pointing out that "analysts had expected the Fed to make an even bigger rate move" before the bank failures raised questions about the nation's financial stability.
The analysts at Charles Schwab point out that the Federal Reserve has two official mandates — to keep inflation in check and promote full employment. But there's a third, unofficial mandate: "To maintain financial stability." Which is why the Fed will probably slow down its rate-hiking plans. "In times of stress," they write, "financial stability concerns often trump the other two mandates."
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a freelance writer who has spent nine years as a syndicated columnist, co-writing the RedBlueAmerica column as the liberal half of a point-counterpoint duo. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic, The Kansas City Star and Heatmap News. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
All the records Taylor Swift has broken
Speed Read Swift's 'Eras' tour is now the highest-grossing concert tour in history
By Brendan Morrow Published
-
'Will growth slow, or is the economy about to fall off a cliff?'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Senate passes FAA bill with new consumer protections
Speed Read The legislation will require airlines to refund customers for flight delays
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Feds cap credit card late fees at $8
speed read The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau finalized a rule to save households an estimated $10 billion a year
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Nigeria's economic woes: what went wrong for African nation
Under the radar President Tinubu is struggling to tackle soaring inflation after 'shock therapy' of ending fuel subsidies
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
Geopolitics and the economy in 2024
Talking Point The West is banking on a year of falling inflation. Don't rule out a shock
By The Week UK Published
-
How did America avoid a recession in 2023?
Today's Big Question A downturn was inevitable. Until it wasn't.
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
What rising gold prices can tell us about the economy in 2024
The Explainer Market hits all-time high, boosted by a weakening US dollar and rising global tensions
By Flora Neville, The Week UK Published
-
Inflation vs. deflation: which is worse for national economies?
Today's Big Question Lower prices may be good news for households but prolonged deflation is ‘terrible for the economy’
By The Week Staff Published
-
Interest rates: more ‘trauma’ for households
Talking Point Latest hike will cause ‘plenty of pain for borrowers’
By The Week Staff Published
-
Interest rates rise to 5.25% for first time in 15 years
Speed Read Inflation is slowing but at 7.9% it remains well above the Bank of England’s 2% target
By Julia O'Driscoll Published