The Tories appear to have made a modest breakthrough in the polls. They are leading Labour in two of three polls released in the past 24 hours, while the monthly average for February puts them ahead of Labour for the first time since January 2012, according to Political Betting calculations.
However, the margin is miniscule: the February average has the Conservatives on 34 per cent (up 2.5), Labour 33.6 (up 1), Ukip 12 (down 2.5), Lib Dems 7.6 (down 0.4), Greens 7 (down 0.3), Others 5.8 (down 0.3).
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