Modest Tory breakthrough in polls? It’s a definite maybe

The Tories appear to have made a modest breakthrough in the polls. They are leading Labour in two of three polls released in the past 24 hours, while the monthly average for February puts them ahead of Labour for the first time since January 2012, according to Political Betting calculations.

However, the margin is miniscule: the February average has the Conservatives on 34 per cent (up 2.5), Labour 33.6 (up 1), Ukip 12 (down 2.5), Lib Dems 7.6 (down 0.4), Greens 7 (down 0.3), Others 5.8 (down 0.3).

A 0.4 per cent lead over Labour might be an improvement, but it’s a long way off the four-point lead the Tories will need to secure victory on 7 May, or the eight-point lead (minimum) needed for a Commons majority.

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But the 2.5 per cent month-on-month jump for the Tories is enough to have David Herdson at Political Betting suggesting “the Tories are coming into form at the right time”.

The three new polls are from Ashcroft and YouGov (both giving the Tories a three-point lead) and Populus (showing Labour in front by two points).

Conservative supporters looking for encouragement will find the Ashcroft poll the most significant of the three – because it has Labour falling five points, reversing a four-point jump the week before.

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If there is a general trend developing, it’s that voters who were toying with voting Ukip or Green are beginning to drift back to the two major parties.

David Herdson at Political Betting sums up: “With only two months to go, the polls imply that Labour’s lead is gone, the Tories wouldn’t have most seats, the Lib Dems would be annihilated, Ukip is on the slide and the Greens won’t break through. Interesting times.”

Quite.