Top tax and spending expert pours cold water on Budget
Paul Johnson says Osborne’s promise that we’re better-off than in 2010 relies on a forecast, not actual data
The leading economic think-tank, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has delivered its verdict on Wednesday’s Budget and cast doubt on whether it will turn out to be the trump card the Tories have been hoping for.
IFS director Paul Johnson, the country’s most authoritative expert on taxation and spending, says the poor have lost most from the coalition’s benefit changes of the past five years. He calls on Chancellor George Osborne to specify how he plans to cut welfare spending by £12bn.
He also casts doubt on Osborne’s claims that people are better-off than they were in 2010. Osborne, he says, was relying on a forecast of what would happen by the end of 2015 – but it hasn’t happened yet. “There is no actual increase in the data we have so far.”
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
And in contrast to the triumphalist tone of Osborne’s Budget speech, Johnson said the pick-up in living standards was the slowest in modern history. It was no cause for celebration.
The significance of the IFS verdict is that it resonates with doubts expressed by the pollster peer Lord Ashcroft in a pre-Budget review of polling on voters’ attitudes.
The former Tory party treasurer has conducted more than 100 national and constituency polls. On the key question of living standards he finds that “fewer than one-in-five say they are already feeling the benefits of an economic recovery” while two-fifths believe they will eventually benefit but haven’t done so yet.
Worryingly for Osborne and Tories, another “stubborn” two-in-five say they are not feeling any benefits from an improved economy and they don’t expect to. “A majority of both Labour and Ukip voters say they expect any recovery to pass them by,” says Ashcroft.
For all the virtuosity of Osborne’s Budget performance, he presumably left these voters cold.
Not everyone is down on the Chancellor, however: the bookmakers William Hill are reporting that 90 per cent of the election bets taken during and since Wednesday’s Budget speech were for the Tories to be the largest party and to form the next government.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
5 ladylike cartoons about women's role in the election
Cartoons Artists take on the political gender gap, Lady Liberty, and more
By The Week US Published
-
The right to die: what can we learn from other countries?
The Explainer A look at the world's assisted dying laws as MPs debate Kim Leadbeater's proposed bill
By The Week Published
-
Volkswagen on the ropes: a crisis of its own making
Talking Point The EV revolution has 'left VW in the proverbial dust'
By The Week UK Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Britain about to 'boil over'?
Today's Big Question A message shared across far-right groups listed more than 30 potential targets for violence in the UK today
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
UK's Starmer slams 'far-right thuggery' at riots
Speed Read The anti-immigrant violence was spurred by false rumors that the suspect in the Southport knife attack was an immigrant
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The Tamils stranded on 'secretive' British island in Indian Ocean
Under the Radar Migrants 'unlawfully detained' since 2021 shipwreck on UK-controlled Diego Garcia, site of important US military base
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Britain's Labour Party wins in a landslide
Speed Read The Conservatives were unseated after 14 years of rule
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Will voter apathy and low turnout blight the election?
Today's Big Question Belief that result is 'foregone conclusion', or that politicians can't be trusted, could exacerbate long-term turnout decline
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published