David Cameron's declaration that he won't seek a third term as Prime Minister is academic. He'll be lucky to stay in Downing Street for a second term, according to a survey showing extreme discontent with many Tory policies.
The research, conducted as part of the British Election Study, found that although the Tories are unlikely to shed support during the "short" election campaign which starts officially next week, their chances of picking up support are limited.
The findings are significant because current Tory support at around 33 per cent is well down on the 37 per cent they enjoyed on election day 2010.
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BES co-director Prof Jane Green from Manchester University says fewer than 20 per cent of voters see an improvement in the Tories’ record on immigration, the NHS, crime, education and cost of living.
Particularly depressing for David Cameron is the fact that "only just over 20 per cent of voters see themselves as personally better off".
Regarding two other issues central to the Labour and Ukip campaigns, "only around six per cent think the NHS is getting better [under the Tory-led coalition] and three per cent think immigration is getting lower."
BES data, adds Prof Green, shows that most voters think cuts in public spending have gone too far. And only 25 per cent consider it “absolutely necessary” to cut the deficit.
The British Election Study is managed by a team based at Manchester, Oxford and Nottingham universities. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. An unusually large sample of around 16,000 respondents were interviewed between 6 and 13 March this year.
Prof Green said: “What is well known is that the national economic recovery is an electoral asset for the Conservatives. However, what isn’t known is that the Tories have much work to do if they are to convince voters that a range of key policies are working.”
Using a range of survey and opinion polls, Prof Green and Prof Will Jennings from Southampton University also discovered that voters hardly distinguish between the parties on their competence overall.
That could be further bad news for the Conservatives, who hope to benefit by convincing voters they are a more competent party in general than Labour.
Prof Jennings said: "Despite the claims of the Conservatives that they offer 'competence over chaos', they do not have a clear advantage on competence with the electorate."
Today’s daily YouGov poll, incidentally, still shows no sign of the Budget having achieved lift-off for the Conservatives, who remain level with Labour: Con 35, Lab 35, Lib Dems 8, Ukip 12, Greens 6.
