Swing to Labour in England could give Miliband victory

The news from Scotland only gets worse for Labour. The latest Ashcroft constituency polls north of the border suggest the SNP surge is gathering not abating. With a near wipeout of his Scottish battalion, Ed Miliband surely has no hope of winning the general election.

And yet, and yet.

Do the sums and you find that Labour have a chance of making serious enough gains in England to overcome the Scottish catastrophe and put Miliband in Downing Street. Here’s how:

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The latest polling average across Britain produced by UK Polling Report shows the two main parties on level-pegging: Con 34, Lab 34, Lib Dem 9, Ukip 15, Greens 5.

Yesterday’s Sunday paper polls and this morning’s YouGov survey, taken together, do nothing to change that picture.

True, Opinium for The Observer put the Tories four points ahead (Con unchanged at 36, Lab down 2 at 32, Lib Dems 8, Ukip 13 and Greens 5). But YouGov for the Sunday Times had Labour ahead by three points (Con 33, Lab up 2 at 36, Lib Dems 8, Ukip 13, Greens 5) and today’s YouGov for The Sun has Labour one point ahead (Con 34, Lab 35, Lib Dems 8, Ukip 13, Greens 5).

In short, it remains neck-and-neck.

General Election 2015: Who will win?

The most common point of comparison used by poll-watchers is the seven-point gap – nationwide - by which the Tories beat Labour in the 2010 general election. So, if the current polling average is about right, there’s been a swing to Labour of 3.5 per cent.

But forget that seven-point margin for a moment and concentrate instead on the score in England and Wales at the 2010 election: the Tory lead was more than 11 per cent.

A drop from 11 points to zero – again, assuming current polling is reasonably accurate – means there’s been a swing to Labour of more than five per cent since 2010.

There are around 70 marginal seats currently held by the Tories and the Lib Dems in England and Wales vulnerable to a swing to Labour of five per cent.

Labour are unlikely to take all 70 - there are local nuances to take into account. But most observers are agreed that Labour is in a much stronger position than the Tories when it comes to the “ground war”. As the Economist points out, they are leaving the Conservatives in their wake in terms of local organisation.

And Labour’s “air war” is also going better. Only a couple of weeks ago, the “narrative” of this campaign was that Miliband was a feeble party leader who the majority would not vote for, even if they liked his party’s policies.

That has clearly changed. Miliband is looking stronger, his personal rarting has improved dramatically: as one political commentator said yesterday, he suddenly looks taller.

Even YouGov president Peter Kellner, who has been insisting since before the campaign began that David Cameron would remain Prime Minister, has felt bound to change his view.

He now says Cameron could struggle to stay at Number Ten because the Tories are losing both the air and the ground war. YouGov surveys, Kellner argues, show that voters are now “warming to the idea” of an Ed Miliband-led government.