The water war between the US and Mexico

The U.S. and Mexico are experiencing another border dispute, and this one is about water. The conflict stems from an 80-year-old treaty where the countries agreed to share water from the Colorado River and the Rio Grande. However, because water is in more demand but scarcer than ever, sharing has not been going to plan. 

What is causing the conflict?

The U.S. and Mexico signed a treaty in 1944 stipulating that Mexico send 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. every five years from the Rio Grande, and the U.S. send 1.5 million acre-feet of water to Mexico from the Colorado River each year. But water levels are lower than ever, and Mexico has "sent only about 30% of its expected deliveries, the lowest amount at this point of any four- or five-year cycles since 1992," said Reuters. 

Mexico is supposed to deposit the water in the Falcon and Amistad Reservoirs, both of which had record-low water levels in June 2024. Climate change is causing a dearth of water, making it nearly impossible for Mexico to fulfill its part of the deal. Ninety percent of the country is currently experiencing a drought as a result of extreme temperatures and below-average rainfall. "I just don't see a means by which sufficient water could be delivered right now in time to save the agricultural production for this year," Carlos Rubinstein, a former Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Rio Grande watermaster and consultant, said to Inside Climate News. "So the water is going to have to come from Mother Nature this year, which is a bad spot to be in."

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What are the consequences?

Mexico is rapidly heading toward a "day 0," when water will run dry altogether. "You have treaties that were meant for a stable climate but now are trying to be enforced in a climate that is not stable," Vianey Rueda, a researcher at the University of Michigan, said to CNN. The country argues that current conditions make upholding the treaty extremely difficult, if not impossible. "If there is no water, what can we realistically be expected to pay with?" Salvador Alcántar, a congressman in Chihuahua, Mexico, said to CNN. "No one can be forced to give away what they don't have." 

The effects are far-reaching. "Mexico's lack of timely water deliveries puts all Texas agriculture at risk," Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas)  said in a press release. Texas, in particular, is home to sugar and citrus farms struggling from a lack of water. On the other hand, farmers in Mexico are protesting sending water to the U.S., as they are also suffering from scarcity. "A lot of the nation, especially the state of Texas, but also across the eastern part of the nation relies on the Rio Grande Valley to supply the fall and winter vegetables," Brian Jones, a farmer in the Rio Grande Valley said to Nexstar. "It will start impacting customers in the grocery store quickly." 

Will there be a resolution?

The International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), which oversees the treaty between the two countries, is looking to make amendments to the treaty to account for the current circumstances. "Amendments are agreed between the countries through a 'minute' process," said CNN. "Minutes can encompass issues from data-sharing to water delivery changes." Tensions between the two countries are already high, especially regarding immigration, and the water problem is adding fuel to the fire. Texas politicians have been pressuring the Biden administration to take more decisive action to make Mexico deliver, including instating sanctions. 

Mexico recently elected climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum as president, which has reopened discussions about the water treaty. "We've asked Mexico for a plan on how they're going to meet their deficit right now," Maria Elena Giner, the U.S. commissioner of the IBWC, said to CNN. However, the U.S. could potentially elect a new president in the coming months which could once again alter progress on treaty negotiations. "The incoming U.S. president will also appoint the IBWC commissioner," said Inside Climate News. "The tone of binational negotiations could change dramatically." 

Despite the political motivations, not much can be done regarding the lack of water. "If there's no water to distribute, there's nothing we can do," Giner said.