General election 2017: Will the weather dampen Labour's chances?
The Week looks at whether storm clouds and high winds will affect election turnout
![Rain UK Weather](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/MkG5nFqTDVvwF3XPNpBoG5-415-80.jpg)
If the weather today is as bad as the forecast suggests, it could reduce voter turnout - and that could have an impact on the result.
"Traditionally, lower turnout favours the Tories," says ITV News. But if turnout is reduced specifically due to poor weather, it's less clear who it will favour.
"If the old stay at home, that's bad news for the Tories; if the young, that's bad news for Labour."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
![https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516-320-80.jpg)
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What's is the forecast?
"Bands of rain or showers affecting the UK, with the risk of hail and thunder on Thursday," said the Met Office.
Channel 4 weatherman Liam Dutton said polling day "will see heavy rain and a brisk breeze sweep northwards across the UK".
But he added: "Despite being an unseasonably unsettled day for June, very few places will see an inch of rain – probably only the hills of Wales, north west England and south-west Scotland. Everywhere else is likely to have half an inch of rain or less, with some eastern parts of England seeing nothing at all.
"Even if weather conditions do affect UK voters, the rain we're due on Thursday is unlikely to be enough to make a big splash."
Does bad weather affect turnout?
Researchers in the US concluded turnout falls by about one per cent that each inch of rain that falls. Studies in Spain and the Netherlands found a similar negative relationship between rain and turnout.
In Sweden, however, no statistically significant relationship has been found - and there are "many reasons why the experience in the US would not be replicated in Britain", says Channel 4.
"There's no strong data either way in the UK and there won't even be that much rain on election day this year."
So will it affect the result?
Shami Chakrabarti, a member of Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet, blamed the rain in Copeland for Labour's by-election defeat in February, saying the party's voters were less likely to have cars.
However, experts say there is no evidence from the UK to suggest bad weather stops people from voting.
"There's basically no correlation between the weather and turnout," Stephen Fisher an associate professor of political sociology at Oxford University told the BBC.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, agrees. "We've had one or two general elections when it's been raining in some parts of the country and not in another and there has been no significant variation in turnout," he says.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Paloma recipe: the cocktail of the summer
The Week Recommends This refreshing drink balances the fresh and fizzy taste of grapefruit soda with a subtle flavour of smooth tequila
By Rebekah Evans, The Week UK Published
-
Mushroom edibles are tripping up users
the explainer The psychedelics can sometimes have questionable components
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Prisons are simply not prepared for extreme heat
Under the radar Inmates are at severe risk of heat-related illness
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The Tamils stranded on 'secretive' British island in Indian Ocean
Under the Radar Migrants 'unlawfully detained' since 2021 shipwreck on UK-controlled Diego Garcia, site of important US military base
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Britain's Labour Party wins in a landslide
Speed Read The Conservatives were unseated after 14 years of rule
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Will voter apathy and low turnout blight the election?
Today's Big Question Belief that result is 'foregone conclusion', or that politicians can't be trusted, could exacerbate long-term turnout decline
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Will Aukus pact survive a second Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question US, UK and Australia seek to expand 'game-changer' defence partnership ahead of Republican's possible return to White House
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
It's the economy, Sunak: has 'Rishession' halted Tory fightback?
Today's Big Question PM's pledge to deliver economic growth is 'in tatters' as stagnation and falling living standards threaten Tory election wipeout
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Why your local council may be going bust
The Explainer Across England, local councils are suffering from grave financial problems
By The Week UK Published
-
Rishi Sunak and the right-wing press: heading for divorce?
Talking Point The Telegraph launches 'assault' on PM just as many Tory MPs are contemplating losing their seats
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet, The Week UK Published