Where in the world is the Biden campaign?

It's been just under seven months since President Joe Biden officially (if somewhat belatedly) launched his reelection campaign for a second term in the White House, making an impassioned case in his announcement video that it's time to "finish the job" he started in 2021. Since then, however, "the job" has largely dominated Biden's public agenda, with the obligations of the presidency itself commanding the bulk of his time, even as a slate of Republican, independent, and Democratic challengers ramp up their own respective campaigns. While Biden hasn't been forced by necessity to match the barn-storming pace of those candidates locked in primary battles, or seeking to boost their public profiles, his comparatively low-key reelection operation has some allies worried that the president could be squandering both time and momentum with less than a year to go before election day. 

For its part, the Biden camp has projected confidence that the pace and pitch of the president's campaign to date are all going according to plan, with plenty of time to modulate as necessary once the general election begins in earnest. But as former President Donald Trump looks increasingly likely to secure the Republican presidential nomination from a field he currently dominates, could Biden be doing more now to help himself and his campaign in the future? 

'Playing the long game'

Broadly, the Biden campaign is operating on a plan to "stay mostly under the radar and off the trail until next spring," CNN reported in September. The intervening months will be spent "ramping up an extensive data and outreach experiment" — an opportunity afforded by allowing the Republicans to simply "fight each other during a multi-MAGA headed brawl," pollster Jef Pollock explained to the network. 

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The slow fuse for Biden's reelection campaign is "by design" even though it carries "much risk," Roll Call agreed, highlighting the dangers of "playing the long game" as a "big gamble in the saturated media and disinformation market." The "palpable lack of urgency" emanating from the Biden camp is often at odds with the president's own framing of Trump and his MAGA movement as an existential threat to American democracy and freedoms. The Biden team's current focus on the administration's accomplishments for the economy and infrastructure has struggled to move the needle with voters, and there seems to be no "scrambling, or altering its long-play strategy, to change that."

Democrats close to the campaign worry that the president's team hasn't "effectively communicated a reelection plan, a second-term governing vision or a clear argument against Trump," according to The Washington Post, which noted that the Biden team has since begun dialing up its attacks on Trump in particular. 

'You're supposed to be on a diet'

As anxiety around Biden's slow-and-steady campaign has grown, not everyone is worried that a shift is needed. Explaining the need for different tactics at different stages of the election, former campaign manager for Barack Obama's reelection bid Jim Messina pointed out to Fortune that the ongoing GOP primary is "allowing people to think, 'Well, it could be Nikki Haley, it could be someone else.'" It's only when voters have a binary choice locked in that the campaign should start pushing hard. Predicting that it'd be easy to juice polling numbers now by going after Trump at this stage, Messina compared the inclination to "sugar candy" that gives "a nice rush." But, Messina cautioned "you’re supposed to be on a diet" of touting your economic narrative. It's only once the race is between Biden and Trump in a general election that you "whale away on him."

Donors, meanwhile, have little recourse for concerns over a lackadaisical Biden campaign for now, with many telling The Washington Post that they have "no plans to take their concerns public or change course." To the extent that some donors have worries at this stage, it's "largely prompted eye rolls" from Biden's senior staff, who have "not second guessed their strategy," even as other advisors work to counter the impression of a rudderless campaign. 

Ultimately though, "money is not going to be a problem" for the president's reelection campaign as election day draws nearer, one major Biden donor explained to CNN. "The fear of Trump will trump that."