How Petteri Orpo will steer Finland in a new direction

On Sunday, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin's government met the same fate as many that steered their countries through the COVID-19 crisis — her coalition was deposed and is set to be replaced by Finland's center-right National Coalition Party (NCP), whose leader, Petteri Orpo, will likely become prime minister.

Finland's system of proportional representation means that none of the three leading parties in the election captured anything close to a majority in the 200-seat parliament, so Orpo will need to put together a coalition in order to form a government. This coalition could even include Marin's Social Democratic Party (SDP), which came in third place with 19.9 percent of the vote behind the NCP's 20.8 percent, or the nationalist Finns Party's 20.1 percent. Such negotiations can take weeks.

A party loyalist rises

Orpo cuts an entirely different figure than Marin, who was one of the youngest national executives in the world when she became prime minister in 2019 at age 34. In contrast to Marin, who built an international following as a feminist and millennial leader, Orpo is largely unknown outside of Finland.

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Marin had made international headlines for her social life, including a video in which she and some friends were seen drinking and dancing late at night. A government inquiry cleared her of any wrongdoing in the incident, and supporters argued that sexist double standards were being applied to Marin.

The 53-year-old Orpo hails from rural Southwest Finland, was an economics major in college, and completed a master's degree in political science. A student union leader in his university days, Orpo got involved in politics as the executive director of the Southwest Finland National Coalition Party, and then as an advisor to Ville Itälä, then-Minister of the Interior and Chairman of the NCP. He was first elected to Finland's parliament in 2007 as a member of the NCP and later served in a number of ministerial roles. According to his website, Orpo had "a happy childhood" and is now married with two children and two dogs

Dramatic changes in policy might be unlikely. Finnish political analyst Mikko Poutanen argues that "he is perhaps not as conservative as the party profile would suggest."

Spending concerns take center stage

It was Orpo's message about fiscal responsibility that appears to have vaulted his party into a narrow lead in the results. Orpo has been a vocal opponent of the Marin government's spending priorities, and believes the country must try to tackle the national debt. "The outlook is very bad," he told Agence France-Presse. "Our public finances will plummet and this will lead to the erosion of the foundations of our welfare society."

Like many center-right parties in Europe, Orpo and the NCP remain relatively moderate on social issues. That could spell trouble for Orpo's efforts to form a coalition with the Finns Party, the right-wing populist party which came in 2nd. According to Daily Finland, there are "major disagreements" between the two parties on issues like "immigration, climate change issues, and European Union policies."

Support for joining NATO as Russia worries worsen

The new government will take office amidst a momentous change in the country's foreign policy. On Tuesday, Finland officially joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), abandoning the country's longstanding policy of official neutrality.

Orpo was long a supporter of Finland joining NATO, another way that he and the NCP distinguished itself from European populist parties that have courted and received assistance from Vladimir Putin and pushed back against efforts to reinforce Ukraine. As Orpo wrote last September following Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine, "We believe that Finland's — as well as Sweden's — NATO membership would improve not just our own security but the overall defence of Europe."