What is Russia plotting in Moldova?

Moldova is braced for an escalation of Russian disinformation and destabilisation attempts ahead of a crucial presidential election and referendum on future membership of the EU.

Since the Ukraine invasion, concern has grown that Vladimir Putin would turn his attention to neighbouring Moldova in a bid to regain control of another former Soviet republic.

Although Moldova does not share a border with Russia, its separatist region of Transnistria has become the rallying cry used by Moscow to undermine the tiny country. In February, pro-Russian separatist leaders issued an appeal to Putin for "protection" that "echoed similar 'appeals' from inside Ukraine which set in motion the illegal Russian annexations of its territories", said Chatham House experts.

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What is Russia plotting?

For more than two years, Moldova has been "walking a fine line", said the Kyiv Independent. On one hand, the government in the capital Chisinau "supported Ukraine and tailed Kyiv's move toward the EU. On the other hand, Moldova did little to provoke Russia, holding enormous sway over the country".

With two crucial votes coming in the autumn, "the country is awaiting Russian-led political turmoil".

Earlier this year, a move by the "all-deputies congress" in Tiraspol, Transnistria's capital, where pro-Russian separatists called on Moscow to stop the "pressures" coming from Chisinau, was dismissed by the Moldovan government as a "Russian psyops".

"What we've seen in Transnistria was a show put on so that the Kremlin has a reason to disrupt the situation in Moldova," lawmaker Oazu Nantoi of the pro-European ruling party PAS told the paper. "We will see the meaning of this show later on."

The small eastern European country has a population of just three million and average monthly salary of less than $1,000, yet it has become "ground zero in the battle between disinformation, much of it fuelled by AI, and elections", said Politico.

While other democracies fear foreign governments meddling in their affairs, for Moldova such interference has become an "everyday reality". Some, like national security adviser Stanislav Secrieru, fear that the ongoing interference efforts from Moscow may "lay the groundwork among locals for a possible Russian invasion, at some point".

Russia still maintains around 1,500 troops in Transnistria, but for now has chosen to wage "hybrid warfare" in Moldova, "whereby the Kremlin is using all available means of leverage and interference to impose its will – short of bombing the country", said Josh Rogin for The Washington Post. Moscow has "tried to orchestrate a coup, trained fake anti-government protesters, flooded the country with disinformation and funnelled illicit cash to pro-Russian opposition parties".

Could crucial votes decide Moldova's fate?

"Threatening Moldova's security, squeezing its economy and undermining its democracy" are efforts that are "all aimed at replacing its pro-Western leadership with a new government bought and paid for by the Kremlin", said Rogin.

The crisis in Transnistria is expected to influence the upcoming presidential elections in October, when pro-European incumbent President Maia Sandu is set to see a run-off with one of the pro-Russian candidates. Towards the end of the year, voters are also set to pass judgement on whether they would like to join the EU in the future, after the bloc opened accession negotiations in December 2023.

"Both are opportunities for Moscow to strengthen its influence over the country and to subvert Moldova's possible integration into the EU," said Chatham House.

The head of Moldova's Information and Security Service said that in 2023 alone, Russia illegally channelled more than $55 million, or almost 0.4% of Moldova's nominal GDP, into influencing elections and buying votes in the country. This activity is expected to be turbocharged for elections this year, with the next few months a "critical test for Moldova's internal resilience to Russian aggressive encroachment", said the think tank.

Around 60% of Moldovans now support such closer ties with the West. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has made Moldova – and the Harvard-educated Sandu – "the poster children for the bloc’s march East", said Politico, a move that "hasn't gone unnoticed by the Kremlin and its local allies".

While EU accession would be difficult, it would be welcomed, as "salvation can only come in the form of European integration and genuine strategic autonomy", said Euronews's Claudiu Degeratu last year. "The defence strategy of the Republic of Moldova and its armed forces have become the most critical priorities," he added. "Moldova needs modern defence capabilities, assistance programmes and defence resources", with which it "could be one of the European success stories".

But while Moldova tries to build ties with the West, it knows that its survival as a democracy is effectively tied to that of Ukraine.

“It's not an issue of whether Russia wants to invade, it’s only an issue of if they can," Moldova's new Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi told The Washington Post. "God forbid, if the Russians would feel emboldened, clearly Moldova would be next. And after that, it's anybody’s guess."