Argentina’s mounting political uncertainty

​Argentina’s president Alberto Fernández has announced he will not stand for re-election in 2023, plunging the country into further political uncertainty following corruption charges and an alleged assassination attempt on current vice-president and two-time former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

In a video message on Friday, President Fernández said he would “hand over the presidential sash to whomever has been legitimately elected at the polls by the popular vote” in October and not seek a second term in office, “throwing open a race to lead the ruling Peronist coalition at the ballot amid a deepening economic crisis”, said Reuters.

The president and vice-president have “at times been at loggerheads”, added the news agency, and Fernández de Kirchner, often known as CFK, had been thought to also be stepping down at the next election too.

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But the Buenos Aires Times reported earlier this month that CFK told a meeting of trade union officials: “Those who are thinking that I am going to devote myself to looking after the grandchildren… it would be better for them to forget about it.”

The prospect of an unlikely third presidential term for CFK has caused some consternation in the South American country, with the 70-year-old having faced an alleged assassination attempt in September and been found guilty of corruption in December.

Why is President Fernández stepping down?

Fernández has seen his opinion poll ratings tank as Argentina “has been stuck in economic doldrums for years, with more than 50% of children living in poverty and a galloping annual inflation rate of more than 100%”, said Le Monde.

“The economic context put too much pressure on him,” Mariel Fornoni, director of Management & Fit, told Reuters. She said that “internal pressures” had forced Fernández’s hand, though in reality with his approval rating under 20% he never had much chance of winning.

“Alberto Fernández is taking himself out of a race he was never really in,” Fornoni said.

The question of who takes over the leading party’s coalition remains up in the air though. Agustino Fontevecchia, digital director for Argentine weekly newspaper Perfil, wrote for Forbes in February that Fernández and economy minister Sergio Massa “have an explicit agreement” to try to sideline CFK in favour of Massa. Despite repeatedly saying himself that he won’t run, Massa “barely hides the excitement at the possibility of becoming president”, said Fontevecchia.

Who is Cristina Fernández de Kirchner?

CFK is a “powerful and divisive figure” in Argentina, said The Guardian. She was first lady from 2003 to 2007 alongside her husband, President Néstor Kirchner.

In 2007, she became the country’s first elected female president, part of the so-called “pink tide” of populist, left-wing Latin American leaders in the 2000s.

CFK and her husband “gave rise to Kirchnerism”, said The New York Times, “one of the most powerful political forces in Argentina”.

CFK, 70, served two terms until 2015. When she was elected vice-president in 2019 she was “seen by many as more powerful than even the president”, added the paper.

While she is loved by Peronistas, supporters of former president Juan Perón’s legacy, Argentina’s right wing “has long made her its top target”, the paper said.

In 2018, she became embroiled in charges of corruption relating to her time as president, all of which she denied. The charges sparked a wave of protests, and at the time of the alleged attempted assassination last September she was preparing to face trial.

Levels of “verbal violence” had increased significantly, said The Guardian, with some Argentinian politicians calling for the death sentence to be reintroduced for the vice-president.

In December, CFK was found guilty of “fraudulent administration” and sentenced to six years in jail, suspended while she finishes her term “in a case that has shaken the country”, said BBC News.

Prosecutors said she had “created a kickback scheme which steered lucrative public work contracts towards a friend of hers in return for bribes”, added the broadcaster. CFK said the charges against her were politically motivated, speaking after the verdict, and described herself as the victim of a “judicial mafia”, the Associated Press news agency reported. She is expected to appeal.

What happened during the ‘attempted assassination’?

On 1 September 2022, CFK was greeting people outside her flat in Buenos Aires, after hundreds gathered to show support ahead of the corruption trial.

TV cameras covering the demonstrations filmed Fernando Montiel, 35, pushing through the crowd and raising a semi-automatic weapon to CFK’s face. A witness said she heard “the sound of the trigger being pulled”, according to the Associated Press.

Fernández de Kirchner “only survived” because the semi-automatic .32-calibre Bersa jammed, said The Daily Telegraph.

Police immediately arrested Montiel. His girlfriend, Brenda Uliarte, 23, also at the scene, was arrested a few hours later. Both have been charged with attempted murder, which they deny, and are awaiting trial.

A semi-automatic pistol was found with its serial number partially removed, reported La Nación. The gun was loaded with five bullets, but there was no bullet in the firing chamber.

“Imagine how nervous I was,” Montiel told television news channel C5N, while in pre-trial detention. “I pulled the trigger and the shot didn’t go off.”

In a national broadcast, President Fernández called it “the most serious incident since we recovered democracy” in 1983. “They wanted to kill her,” tweeted Argentina’s foreign minister, Santiago Cafiero.