A Trump vaccine counterfactual


By now it's well-established that enthusiasm for the COVID-19 vaccines is split along partisan lines. A new NBC News poll shows that 88 percent of Democrats have gotten their shots, compared to just 55 percent of Republicans. Liberals have mostly patted themselves on the back for this state of affairs amid increasing frustration with their unvaxxed neighbors as the pandemic continues to rage.
But what if the vaccines had become widely available before the 2020 presidential election, instead of right after?
That's certainly what then-President Donald Trump wanted, believing an early vaccination push would help his re-election chances. During the campaign, he said the vaccines might be ready for approval by October 2020. (They weren't.) The media was filled with stories suggesting Trump might push to make shots available before their effectiveness and safety had been reliably determined.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The skepticism found its way to the campaign trail. Then-candidates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris both expressed mistrust. "Let me be clear: I trust vaccines, I trust scientists, but I don't trust Donald Trump," Biden said in September 2020. Other Trump critics piled on. "Trump's vaccine can't be trusted," a Foreign Policy headline blared the same month. "If a vaccine comes out before the election, there are very good reasons not to take it." A poll taken six weeks before Election Day showed 52 percent of Americans — and 88 percent of Democrats — didn't trust Trump on the issue.
I didn't trust Trump on the issue, either. And I've wondered if I would have been so eager to get my shots if he had been in power when they became available to me.
While we all like to think we're rational individuals, it's also true that political polarization often drives our beliefs instead of the other way around. Before the pandemic, anti-vaccination sentiment was picking up steam and could be found on both the left and right. "Maybe it's not about vaccines, but about who's in power," the sociologist Charles McCoy wrote in 2019. That suggests we liberals might temper our rage at the unvaxxed with a little knowledge of our own fallibility. It's easy to envision a scenario in which more Republicans and fewer Democrats would have been vaccinated by now, if only Trump had got his way.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a writer with 30 years of newspaper and online journalism experience. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic and The Kansas City Star. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
'From his election as pope in 2013, Francis sought to reform'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Israel blames 'failures' for killing of medics
speed read 14 Gaza medics and 1 U.N. employee were killed by IDF special forces
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Hegseth reportedly shared war plans in 2nd group text
Speed Read The defense secretary sent information about an attack in Yemen to a Signal group chat that included his wife and brother
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
The anger fueling the Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez barnstorming tour
Talking Points The duo is drawing big anti-Trump crowds in red states
By Joel Mathis, The Week US
-
Why the GOP is nervous about Ken Paxton's Senate run
Today's Big Question A MAGA-establishment battle with John Cornyn will be costly
By Joel Mathis, The Week US
-
Bombs or talks: What's next in the US-Iran showdown?
Talking Points US gives Tehran a two-month deadline to deal
By Joel Mathis, The Week US
-
The JFK files: the truth at last?
In The Spotlight More than 64,000 previously classified documents relating the 1963 assassination of John F. Kennedy have been released by the Trump administration
By The Week Staff
-
'There is a certain kind of strength in refusing to concede error'
instant opinion 'Opinion, comment and editorials of the day'
By Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, The Week US
-
'Most Americans have never heard of the Office of Net Assessment'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Are we really getting a government shutdown this time?
Talking Points Democrats rebel against budget cuts by Trump, Musk
By Joel Mathis, The Week US
-
Will Trump lead to more or fewer nuclear weapons in the world?
Talking Points He wants denuclearization. But critics worry about proliferation.
By Joel Mathis, The Week US