What is at stake in the EU elections?

European voters "may be about to elect their most right-wing parliament in history," said CNBC. Voters in 27 nations this week will choose 720 members for five-year terms in the EU Parliament — and as with much of the rest of the world, the results are expected to reflect a surge of nationalist anti-immigrant sentiment on the continent. The parliament has traditionally "been led by a strong majority of centrist parties," but expected gains for parties that include Italy's Giorgia Meloni and France's Marine Le Pen "have thrown this balance into question."

"The young adults now gravitating to far right aren't Nazis or xenophobic racists," Paul Hockenos said at Foreign Policy. But they are discontented with the continent's shaky post-pandemic economy. Polls show that means those young voters are abandoning left-wing outfits like the Green Party in favor of identity-driven groups like Germany's AfD. "The system still doesn't work for them," said one political scientist, "so let the other guys have a try." 

What did the commentators say?

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The expected far-right surge means "the next European parliament will be more polarized and fragmented than ever," Ivan Krastev said at Financial Times. But newly empowered right-wing groups may only push their luck so far. "Many on Europe's far right today have been shaped by the failure of Brexit," and are haunted by "being forced to deliver on their radical promises." And infighting may limit their effectiveness: Meloni and Le Pen's EU parties have not been able to present a unified bloc. That is one more sign of "how hard it would be to house all the continent's rightwing radicals under one roof."

Some observers are less sanguine. "I'm a brown, Muslim European," Shada Islam said at The Guardian. "For people like me, these EU elections are terrifying." The far-right parties — even if they have put on friendlier faces — are still backed by "unashamedly racist, xenophobic and Islamophobic" politicians. "This is a sad and sobering moment for all progressive Europeans."

What next?

The elections come as Russia and Ukraine fight Europe's biggest war since World War II and could "test the durability of the Western coalition that is backing Ukraine against Russian aggression," said the Council on Foreign Relations. One sign of the stakes: EU officials say Russia is behind a disinformation campaign targeting the elections. "Before with trolls and bots, there was usually a person behind it," one researcher told Reuters. "With AI, everything has multiplied."

The election will quickly present EU President Ursula von der Leyen with a tricky question. She will need 361 votes from the Parliament to secure another term but may not be able to get there without support from one of the far-right parties. Italy's Meloni is already presenting herself as a kingmaker. It is not clear, though, that von der Leyen can make a deal while also keeping together what is left of her existing coalition. She "has signaled that she may look for allies on the hard right to gather enough votes," said The New York Times. "But such a move would risk alienating center-left forces on which she has also depended."