Assad's future life in exile

As opposition forces took hold of Damascus a little over a week ago, Syria's dictator, Bashar al-Assad, took flight. Flying below radar range and with "the aircraft's transponder switched off", his private plane headed first to Russia's airbase outside the Syrian city of Latakia and then on to Moscow, where his wife Asma and their three children were waiting for him, sources told Reuters.

Russia, a key ally of Assad during Syria's civil war, reportedly coordinated with neighbouring states to ensure the overthrown president could leave safely in a Russian plane. However, a statement purportedly from Assad, published on the Syrian presidential Telegram channel today, said that he had gone to the airbase to supervise defences, and was evacuated after it was besieged by rebel forces. "At no point during these events did I consider stepping down or seeking refuge, nor was such a proposal made by any individual or party," the statement said.

Assad's journey brought to an end his family's dynastic rule stretching back to 1971, and signalled the start of a life in exile.

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Where is Assad living?

Russian state media said, shortly after the fall of Damascus, that Assad and his family were in Moscow and would be granted asylum on "humanitarian grounds".

But, said the BBC, the Kremlin's official spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused to confirm Assad's whereabouts or if he would receive asylum. "I have nothing to tell you... right now," he said. "Such a decision [on granting asylum] cannot be made without the head of state. It is his decision."

As well as his immediate family, Assad is said to have been joined by translators, drivers and security guards. Other relatives are also believed to be in Moscow, including Asma's previously London-based parents, Fawaz and Sahar Akhras, according to the Daily Mail.

How safe is he?

Several members of Assad's extended family purchased at least 18 luxury apartments in a Moscow complex in 2019, the Financial Times reported. But the former president and his family are unlikely to be living anywhere so extravagant, said The Guardian. Instead, they are probably "hidden away in a secluded estate" and under the "tight surveillance" of Russian security guards.

Where does Assad stand with Putin?

Russia and Syria have had a long relationship, but Vladimir Putin has always kept Assad "at arm's length", said The Guardian. Russian media and state officials were quick to pin the blame for the fall of Syria on Assad, and have not yet released any photos of him in Moscow while it "builds ties" with the new men in charge of Syria.

Assad has joined Putin's "collection of ex-dictators" and must now do "whatever is convenient for the Kremlin", wrote Professor Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian security affairs, in The Spectator. Putin seems unlikely to hand him back to the Syrians but he remains "a potential bargaining chip".

What will Assad do now?

Assad will "maintain a very low profile, perhaps for the rest of his life", US-based Syria expert David Lesch, who has met Assad several times, told The Guardian.

Given the calls for the former president to face justice for his alleged complicity in war crimes, Assad is unlikely to leave Russia for any country where he faces the threat of extradition back to Syria.

He joins a long line of deposed dictators who have ended their lives in exile. Following his overthrow from Uganda in 1979, Idi Amin travelled to the Middle East, where he eventually "lived an unremarkable middle-class life" in Saudi Arabia, said The Washington Post. By contrast, deposed Chadian dictator Hissène Habré "enjoyed a life in splendour" in Senegal after fleeing Chad in 1990, although justice caught up with him in 2016, when he was sentenced to life imprisonment for crimes against humanity, and died of Covid in 2021.

The Assads could themselves enjoy a life of luxury: they are believed to have $2 billion hidden in offshore accounts, tax havens, real-estate portfolios and shell corporations around the world.