Will California’s Proposition 50 kill gerrymandering reform?

California once led the national campaign against gerrymandering. The Golden State’s once-a-decade congressional redistricting process was designed to prevent Democrats and Republicans from rigging the map in their own favor. Now voters will decide if those reform-minded days are over.

If approved, Proposition 50 will likely lead to “more Democrats being elected to Congress,” said The New York Times. The ballot measure would let the state temporarily dump its current map, drawn by an independent commission, for the “next three election cycles” in order to tilt its playing field to the left.

Democrats could “flip as many as five of the Republican-held seats in the state” under Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) proposal, an effort to counter Texas’ recent GOP-driven redistricting effort, said the Times. But some observers are skeptical that Proposition 50 will prove temporary. “How do you go back to restoring norms from here?” analyst Rob Stutzman said at a panel convened by the Public Policy Institute of California.

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The will of the people?

Politicians who can “rig the vote in their favor” can also “safely ignore the will of the people,” said George Boardman at The Union. He voted for the 2010 measure that created California’s independent redistricting commission, to “stop the gerrymandering that has created life-long sinecures for many congressmen.” That makes it difficult to vote for the new measure. It's the “lesser of the two evils” to vote for Proposition 50 as long as the GOP is grabbing seats in Texas and other Republican-led states. “But I won’t like it one bit.”

President Donald Trump urged Texas to redraw its maps to favor Republicans. “Copying Trump’s bullying to gain power normalizes it,” said The San Diego Union-Tribune editorial board. And the California proposal is even “more extreme.” Proposition 50 leaves just four of the state’s 52 House seats in GOP hands. That's a level of “disenfranchisement” parallel to what “Deep South states used to do to Black voters for much of the 20th century.”

The ballot measure "doesn’t guarantee Democrats five seats,” Jim Newton said at CalMatters. Californians are “rightly proud of their independent commission” and its efforts against gerrymandering. Even with a redrawn map, however, Democratic candidates would still have to do the work of “collecting voters’ support and securing the office.” No one should make assumptions about outcomes. “District line-drawing alone is not enough for political victory.”

Independents sitting out

Former President Barack Obama is campaigning to pass Proposition 50, said The Associated Press. California voters “can stop Republicans in their tracks” by supporting it, he said in a 30-second TV ad. The measure is opposed by former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who oversaw the creation of the independent commission in 2010.

More than 2.4 million voters have cast early ballots in the election, said The Sacramento Bee. Just 7% of independent voters have weighed in. If you are not a partisan voter, this election is "tailor-made for you to sit out,” said Republican political strategist Mike Madrid. The final day for voting is Nov. 4.