Can RFK Jr. qualify for the debates?

In recent decades, the quadrennial presidential debates, hosted from 1988 through 2020 by the non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates, have been a two-person affair. From President Bill Clinton's three rounds of relatively tame debate with Republican Bob Dole in 1996 through the two debates held in the fall of 2020, there have been two podiums for two candidates. Not since 1992, when folksy billionaire Ross Perot memorably shared the stage with Democratic candidate Bill Clinton and incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush, has a third party candidate had enough support to get on stage. Could that change this year, courtesy of RFK Jr.?

How might RFK Jr. make it to the stage?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a 70-year-old attorney best known for his skeptical views on vaccines and other controversial positions, announced his independent presidential bid in October 2023 after declining to run in the Democratic primaries. His platform features a mixture of positions associated with both major parties, from criticism of the "forever wars" to support for government-backed mortgages with 2019-era interest rates and tougher policies to prevent illegal crossings at the U.S. southern border. Unlike most independent candidates, Kennedy has consistently polled in or near the double digits, with the most recent RealClearPolitics average pegging him at 10.6%. That matters not just for Kennedy's potential influence on the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, but also for the shape of the two scheduled debates. 

The Republican National Committee withdrew its participation from the Commission on Presidential Debates in 2022, throwing the future of the debates into question. That left it up to the Biden and Trump campaigns, who recently agreed after a long period of negotiation to two televised debates, the first to be hosted by CNN on June 27. CNN recycled the CPD's eligibility criteria: Candidates need to hit 15% or higher in 4 or more national surveys conducted by a small, approved list of pollsters. Because he has gotten 15% or higher since the beginning of April in polls by three approved survey researchers (CNN itself, Quinnipiac University and Marquette University) Kennedy has a very good chance of meeting the polling criteria. But candidates also must be on the ballot in states totaling 270 electoral votes (the threshold for an outright victory in the Electoral College), and Kennedy has much further to go there. His campaign says it is either officially on the ballot or has collected enough signatures in states totaling 229 electoral votes and that it already qualifies according to CNN's criteria. Whether CNN will see it that way is an open question.

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Would it matter?

There is no meaningful data on the impact of presidential debates on third-party candidates because 1992 was the only year that featured a debate with the two major-party candidates as well as an independent. Independent John Anderson participated in one debate in 1980, but incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter was so incensed by his inclusion that he skipped it. 

Ross Perot's inclusion in the 1992 debates appears to have been a huge catalyst for his campaign. After launching his bid in February 1992, Perot abruptly dropped out of the race in June despite leading the major party candidates in some polls. When he decided to re-enter the race in September, his polling had collapsed to about 10% at the beginning of October, according to Gallup. But after participating in — and winning, according to surveys — the first debate on October 11th, Perot's Gallup polling shot up to 20% before declining closer to the election. That is very much in keeping with the political science consensus on the impact of debates, which is that they can shake up the polling in the immediate aftermath of a memorable evening but seem incapable of fundamentally altering the trajectory of the race. 

Still, Kennedy likely needs the publicity and exposure of nationally televised debates for a broader introduction to the American people he hopes to lead if he is to break through and have any chance of winning the general election.