What's next for Canada after Trudeau's resignation?

Justin Trudeau was the face of Canadian politics for nearly a decade. Now he is stepping down as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party, leaving his country's immediate future cloudy.

The "Trump factor" was a key element driving Trudeau's resignation, Chantal Da Silva said at NBC News. Incoming U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened to slap large tariffs on America's northern neighbor — and has frequently mused about making Canada America's "51st state." Trudeau "sought to appease Trump" by visiting Mar-a-Lago, Da Silva said, but those efforts "precipitated the final blow" to Trudeau's tenure. What's next? An election, possibly sooner than later. The Canada Elections Act says national elections must be held by Oct. 20, and Trudeau's resignation "means it's likely that a vote will be called before then."

Those elections won't come immediately, though. During his resignation speech, Trudeau announced he is suspending Parliament until March 24 to allow the Liberal Party to select a new leader to take his place, said BBC News. It's a technique used by Canadian governments to "buy time during a political crisis." In this case, Trudeau's maneuver prevents opposition parties (for now) from calling a no-confidence vote that would trigger the election Liberals would likely lose. That's more than two months of breathing space, but Trudeau's replacement "will not have much time to govern" after Parliament resumes.

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A 'lame duck' with little support

Trudeau's resignation announcement "dumps Canadians into one hell of a chaotic mess," Rick Bell said at The Calgary Herald. The suspension of Parliament gives his opposition "no chance to vote and dump the Trudeau government," which would trigger an immediate nationwide election that would let Canadians immediately put the Liberal Party out of power. But that leaves Trudeau as a "lame duck" who doesn't even have the support of his own party as he tangles with Trump "mocking him at every turn."

Canada has a disempowered prime minister at the precise moment "we need a government with a strong mandate," Brian Lilley said at The Toronto Sun. "Who will negotiate with Trump" over his tariff threats? The new American president "will need to be dealt with" but "Trudeau is in no position to negotiate with Trump or anyone else." Announcing a resignation without calling a new election was a "selfish act" that leaves Canada vulnerable at a critical moment. "You can hear Trump laughing all the way from Mar-a-Lago."

Up next: A Conservative populist

Trudeau's replacement is likely to be Pierre Poilievre, a populist who "rode a wave of discontent with Covid-19 policies" to become the Conservative Party leader, said The Wall Street Journal. Poilievre is known for a "pointed speaking style and a lack of respect for Ottawa's political norms" His "bristly personality" can be a turn-off to voters: One poll shows that 55% of Canadians have unfavorable views of the Conservative. Those negative numbers are "still better than Trudeau," said the Journal.

But Poilievre may not get along any better with Trump, said The Hill. Canada "will never be the 51st state," Poilievre posted Tuesday, and added: "I will fight for Canada."