China's backyard: will Trump's aggression push Latin America away?

A public showdown between the leaders of the US and Colombia has rippled across Latin America, increasing the anxiety many nations felt about the return of Donald Trump.

On Sunday, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on trade with Colombia after President Gustavo Petro turned back US military flights carrying deported Colombian migrants. The "dramatic clash" unsettled a region already reeling from Trump's threatened tariffs on Mexico, his anti-immigration policies, and his threat to take control of the Panama Canal, said the Financial Times. China will likely view Trump's unpredictability as "an ideal opportunity".

What did the commentators say?

The "dust-up" showed yet again that Latin America will "bear the brunt" of Trump's policies, said CNN's Patrick Oppmann. The rift "immediately galvanised" the region, with some leaders "quick to cheer Petro on".

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Latin America accounts for 21.3% of the US's foreign trade, according to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean: more than $1 trillion. By treating Latin American nations as if they were "still banana republics that would bend over backward to fulfil the US government's wishes", wrote Cruz Bonlarron Martínez in The Hill, Trump "gravely underestimates their power as a united bloc".

But it's not a united bloc, said Flavia Bellieni Zimmermann in the Australian Institute of International Affairs. Trump can call on two "key strategic allies", including Argentina's Maga-adjacent Javier Milei and Brazil's former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, who is seeking a comeback.

So far, Brazil's centre-left President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has taken a "cautious approach" towards Trump, said Andre Pagliarini in The New Republic. There is currently "no clear coordinated strategy among Latin American leaders" for dealing with Trump.

Perhaps, but most "do not like how the US government is behaving", said Quico Toro in The Atlantic. "Trump's hyper-aggressive approach to Latin America risks tying up the region with a bow and leaving it on Beijing's doorstep."

What next?

Xiomara Castro, the president of Honduras and head of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac), called an emergency summit of the region's leaders following a request from Petro, which takes place tomorrow. The summit of the "leftist" regional body could "revive a unified anti-Trump block", said CNN's Oppmann.

Regardless of Trump's threats, Latin American leaders are unlikely to defer to Trump, said Michael Shifter, a fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue think-tank in Washington.

"Celac is the platform for China in Latin America," he told the FT. The summit is "a kind of proxy for showing [Washington] that if [it is] really going to punish us, then China's willing to fill the gap".