Are we really getting a government shutdown this time?

A government shutdown crisis can seem like the "boy who cried wolf" story of American politics. Democrats and Republicans in Congress have come to the cusp of a shutdown repeatedly in recent years, only to avert disaster at the 11th hour with a mix of votes from both parties. But the story could get a new ending as soon as next week.

A possible March 14 government shutdown is looming, tied up in a "clash over President Donald Trump's attempt to seize" Congress' power of the purse, said The Washington Post. In the first weeks of the new administration, Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency has slashed agencies and budgets that had been approved by Congress. Democrats say passing a new budget is "irrelevant if Trump refuses to spend the money in accordance with the law."

The GOP controls both houses of Congress, of course. But Republicans "will need [Democrats'] votes to pass a spending bill," said CNN. In the House, Republicans' "small majority" means they could "fall short of the votes" needed to pass a budget resolution without Democratic help. That is a possible point of leverage for Democrats seeking enforceable limits on Trump and Musk's cutting spree. If Republicans want Democratic votes to keep the government open "they know what they have to do," said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.).

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Musk is the 'chief obstacle'

Democrats are "known to be wary" of government shutdowns, Joe Perticone and Lauren Egan said at The Bulwark. Halting the work of government is harmful to the economy, and ideologically Democrats believe that "government does good." Still, they are not eager to cut a deal with GOP leaders who have thrown "whole agencies into a woodchipper without lawmakers' input, let alone consent," said Perticone and Egan. They also wonder why they should vote for a budget if afterward "Elon Musk can just show up" and reverse their decisions, said Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.).

Musk is the "chief obstacle" to a bipartisan budget agreement, Ed Kilgore said at New York magazine. Not just because he might cut budgets that Congress approves, but because he has the political muscle to scuttle a deal. The multibillionaire "very nearly blew up" a December funding bill to avert a shutdown by firing off a "tweetstorm demanding deeper cuts" than Republicans originally obtained. That makes Musk and "his superstar status among the noisiest elements of Trump's MAGA base" a wild card in negotiations.

'Put your mandate pants on'

A shutdown fight "could play right into Trump's hands," Rachael Bade said at Politico. Allowing the government to close all but essential operations — the military stays on duty during shutdowns, national parks do not — "could hand carte blanche" to Musk and the efforts to "remake the federal government in the very same ways that Democrats want to fight against."

Republicans are "betting that Democrats will cave," said NOTUS. But some Democrats say the GOP may have to keep the government open on its own. "They run around telling everybody they have this big mandate," said McGovern. "Well, then put your mandate pants on and pass whatever you want to pass."