Keir Starmer has told UK voters that the coming year will bring “positive change in your bills, your communities and your health service”. People across the country will “once again feel a sense of hope”, the prime minister said in his New Year message.
But a new Ipsos poll offers little evidence of faith in Starmer as the architect of change: fewer than half of those quizzed believed he would still be in No. 10 by the end of 2026.
Pollsters have been “surprised” by the “level of apparent hostility” shown by respondents both towards Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves, said George Parker, political editor of the Financial Times. But the PM’s allies believe he can “turn things around”, in part through renewed emphasis on reducing living costs.
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There is “near-universal acceptance” among both Starmer’s “cheerleaders” and his “detractors” that the government must improve how it explains itself and defines its purpose, wrote the BBC’s political editor, Chris Mason. Downing Street is expected to launch a “blitz of public-facing activity” to this end. But the “key challenge” will be deciding what message they want to put out there, and, crucially, whether the government can stick to it. Core themes are likely to be “change”, “stability” and the cost of living
Starmer needs to carry out a “fundamental reset”, said former New Labour advertising guru Chris Powell in The Guardian. In 1995, Tony Blair’s team “planned scrupulously for a complete reorientation” of the party, involving “new strategy, new branding, new policy, new presentation and new organisation”. Starmer needs to embrace that same kind of “no-holds-barred thinking”, if he is to “win the daily war for attention”.
That could be easier said than done. Illegal migration is expected to “continue to dominate political debate”, said Sky News political correspondent Amanda Akass. Starmer hopes his tougher policies will “stop the boats”, but if progress is not made, “the pressure will only intensify”. “The moment of maximum jeopardy will come during May’s elections”: a poor showing “could lead to an open revolt against the PM”.
What next?
There are “good reasons to believe” Starmer may not last the year, said Patrick Maguire in The Times. But while many Labour MPs are attracted to the idea of a leadership change, there is far less enthusiasm for a full leadership contest. Even those “prone to silliness and self-indulgence” recognise that months of internal wrangling would be difficult to justify to the public.
That leaves only the possibility of a “bloodless coup and coronation”. But “Labour history suggests inertia is the most powerful force of all” and with no obvious alternative candidate, the question remains: who would replace Starmer? In the likely event that “the cabinet can’t agree on a challenger” after the May elections, it will be no surprise if the embattled PM survives the year.
