What is at stake for Starmer in China?

When Keir Starmer touches down in Beijing on Wednesday he will become the first UK prime minister to visit China since Theresa May in 2018.

Against the background of the Chinese “mega embassy” controversy, the conviction of British citizen Jimmy Lai and tension over Hong Kong, Starmer says there are “significant opportunities” for British businesses, said Bloomberg.

In a sign of the wider implications of the visit, Starmer dismissed suggestions that he was “seeking stronger ties with China at the expense” of his closest allies.

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What did the commentators say?

Starmer will have to “play it tough” in China if he wants his “ambitious” agenda to materialise, said Michael Kovrig in The Times. In diplomatic discussions with Beijing’s “autocratic” leader Xi Jinping, Starmer’s success will rely on three key areas: “resetting” bilateral relations between the two countries, “boosting” trade and investment deals, and “securing” visa and embassy “reciprocity”.

This will not be easy, especially considering the last decade of relations between the two countries. “Times have hardened, as has the CCP [Chinese Communist Party].” With China’s “abrogation” of the Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong, and with Starmer approving the new embassy in London, it has become clear that Britain and other Western countries have “accommodated Xi’s agenda in the vain hope of economic lifelines and competitive coexistence”.

As a result, Starmer is on the back foot, having already implicitly and explicitly ceded to China’s agenda. The only way his visit can be deemed a success is if he achieves “substantive outcomes, avoiding concessions and controlling the narrative”. This is “not easy”.

For China, the visit presents a “prime opportunity to draw another critical US ally closer” and out of Donald Trump’s orbit, said the Financial Times. China craves “greater access to UK markets”, an example being Ming Yang’s proposed £1.5 billion investment in Scottish wind turbines, a move the Trump administration has criticised on security grounds.

If Starmer’s trip is successful, China will hope this can “lay the groundwork” for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s arrival in February, as Beijing seeks to “repair strained ties with the EU”, as well as “further exploit growing divisions between the US and its Western allies”.

Continuing in his “international statesman” vein, Starmer is “racking up” the air miles, said Ben Marlow in The Telegraph. As he heads to Beijing, it is clear that he is the spearhead of a “massive coordinated attempt to cultivate stronger” diplomatic ties abroad, but he should not forget the “deep freeze” of how relations have been recently.

He should remember the ongoing friction between the two nations, brought about by “Beijing’s cyberattacks, espionage” and the conviction of British citizen Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong. There is also the recent “sudden arrest” of senior People’s Liberation Army figures, underlining how Beijing “operates under its own rules” and is notoriously “hard to predict”. For Starmer, this should be at the “top of his mind” as the long-awaited talks begin.

What next?

Starmer and his delegation – which includes Business Secretary Peter Kyle and senior executives from among other companies HSBC, Diageo, Octopus, Brompton and Jaguar Land Rover – will visit Beijing and Shanghai, before making a brief stop in Japan.

Though the meetings are bilateral, Trump’s looming presence over geopolitics means that Starmer has a “three-body problem”, a source told Politico. The PM does not want to strain relations with the US president and, unlike his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney, Starmer is “desperate not to paint this as a rupture from the US”. In a nutshell, “he doesn’t want any drama”, while “trying to ride three horses at once, staying friendly – or at least engaging – with Washington D.C., Brussels and Beijing”.

European leaders will be watching closely too, said The Observer. For months, they have been “beating a path to Beijing’s door”. China’s size and scale – a population of more than 1.4 billion and a “consumer class of about 900 million people” – make it an attractive market for European businesses.