How political violence has influenced US elections
Failed assassinations haven't always helped candidates at the ballot box

As the dust settles following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, a key question is how the failed bid may impact the upcoming White House election.
The US has a bloody history of political assassinations, with four presidents killed while in office. History also shows that such attempts can have very different effects at the ballot box.
Does surviving an assassination impact election performance?
Like Trump, Theodore Roosevelt was a former president attempting to return to the White House when he was shot on the campaign trail in Milwaukee in 1912. Folded papers and a metal spectacles case in his pocket absorbed some of the shot's impact, and he delivered his speech as planned – with the bullet lodged in his chest. Roosevelt, who was standing for his own Bull Moose Party, told his audience: "I don't know whether you fully understand that I have just been shot. But it takes more than that to kill a Bull Moose!"
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The attempt on his life and his unflappable response "captured the imagination of the country", H.W. Brands, a historian at the University of Texas at Austin, wrote in a biography of the 26th president. But "as impressive as Roosevelt's performance that day had been, it did not propel him to victory", said The New York Times. The episode "was no political windfall" for Roosevelt, agreed Gzero Media, because although he secured more votes than sitting president William Howard Taft, they were both outflanked at the polls by the Democrat candidate, Woodrow Wilson.
In March 1981, Ronald Reagan was leaving a speech in Washington, D.C., and walking to his motorcade when he was shot by John Hinckley Jr. Reagan recovered physically from the shooting and so did his approval rating, which surged by eight points to nearly 70% in the aftermath of the incident.
His "grace under fire" helped him "solidify the support and affection of the American people", said CNN. The incident provided a "new baseline" of support that "propelled his legislative agenda forward".
Although "economic gloom" would pull his rating down by more than 40 points later in the year, said Gzero Media, Reagan had "more than three full years to bounce back" ahead of the 1984 election, and his "broad-based" landslide win, said CNN.
How have assassinations impacted politics?
The impact of actual assassinations "must remain a matter of speculation", said The Washington Post, because "we don't know what would have happened if the victims had lived". If Abraham Lincoln had survived in 1865 and continued as president, "would he have been able to bind the nation's wounds after the Civil War and guarantee civil rights for African Americans"?
Similarly, had John F. Kennedy lived, "would he have avoided a major US escalation in Vietnam" and "prevented the 1960s from turning into such a bloody and tumultuous decade"? The only answer historians can offer in these cases is a "not-very-satisfying 'perhaps'."
Will the Trump incident help or hurt his campaign?
Many commentators believe Saturday's shooting will "dramatically help" Trump's chances because it will "activate the MAGA base" amid "questions about whether Trump's base in particular was less mobilised than they were in years prior", said Vox. It could also win him "sympathy from", and help him "look tough to", a "general electorate".
"Outrage" at the shooting, alongside "relief at his close escape", will "provide him with the ideal stage on which to unite and galvanise his party", said the Daily Express. But Vox pointed out that the election is still nearly four months away and "many other events will consume the news between now and then", that "polling in this race has long been static", and that the identity of the shooter "may not fit easy political narratives".
Also, wrote Lester Munson on The Conversation, another "immediate consequence of the assassination attempt" will favour Trump's expected opponent: it will "turn the national conversation" temporarily away from Biden's much-criticised debate performance.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Chas Newkey-Burden has been part of The Week Digital team for more than a decade and a journalist for 25 years, starting out on the irreverent football weekly 90 Minutes, before moving to lifestyle magazines Loaded and Attitude. He was a columnist for The Big Issue and landed a world exclusive with David Beckham that became the weekly magazine’s bestselling issue. He now writes regularly for The Guardian, The Telegraph, The Independent, Metro, FourFourTwo and the i new site. He is also the author of a number of non-fiction books.
-
Today's political cartoons - May 4, 2025
Cartoons Sunday's cartoons - deportation, Canadian politeness, and more
-
5 low approval cartoons about poll numbers
Cartoons Artists take on fake pollsters, shared disapproval, and more
-
Deepfakes and impostors: the brave new world of AI jobseeking
In The Spotlight More than 80% of large companies use AI in their hiring process, but increasingly job candidates are getting in on the act
-
Trump's first 100 days: the reshaping of America
Talking Point The second Trump White House is 'less a new administration', and more a 'vengeful monarchy'
-
Sick 9/11 responders are being left behind amid federal spending battle
The Explainer Services have been cut and restored following outcry, but staffing issues remain
-
Trump moves to gut PBS and NPR in latest salvo against the media
IN THE SPOTLIGHT The president's executive order targeting two of the nation's largest public broadcasters comes as the White House seeks to radically reframe how Americans get their news
-
Trump judge bars deportations under 1798 law
speed read A Trump appointee has ruled that the president's use of a wartime act for deportations is illegal
-
Trump ousts Waltz as NSA, taps him for UN role
speed read President Donald Trump removed Mike Waltz as national security adviser and nominated him as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations
-
How could Trump ending a VA mortgage program leave veterans on the streets?
Today's Big Question Vets could face foreclosure as a result of the White House's actions
-
Kamala Harris steps back on center stage
IN THE SPOTLIGHT In her first major speech since Donald Trump took office, the former presidential candidate took solid aim at this administration as speculation grows about her future
-
Trump blames Biden for tariffs-linked contraction
speed read The US economy shrank 0.3% in the first three months of 2025, the Commerce Department reported